Tuesday, May 08, 2007

NHL Playoffs: Round 3 Predictions

With the NHL Playoffs taking a breather for a couple of days, I will make my predictions now. First I want to point out an interesting trend that has occured these playoffs. In the West, the 2 teams that did the worst in the post-season with the man advantage, my Canucks and the Sharks, are now golfing. My one prediction about the stanley cup final is the team that has the highest PP% will take lord stanley's cup. A second interesting trend that has transpired is that there have been two match-ups that have essentially been re-matches, that is the teams met in the playoffs within the last five years (Wings-Sharks and Sharks-Predators) and in both cases the team that prevailed previously won a second time. Heading into round three the Sens and Sabres will meet for the second consecutive year. The Sabres won the first time, can they do it again. The Wings and Ducks met in 2003, with the Ducks knocking off the Wings. I went 3-1 in the second round, my only bad pick being choosing the Canucks to beat Anaheim.

Eastern Conference:

#1 Buffalo Sabres (53-22-7) vs. #4 Ottawa Senators (48-25-9): season series: 5-3 Sens

How these two team got to this point:

Senators: In round one they easily dispatched the youthful and inexperienced Penguins in 5 games. The second round wasn't much more of a challenge as the NJ Devils also were defeated in 5 games

Sabres: The NY Islanders were gone after five hard-fought games against the Sabres, while the other team from NY, the Rangers, managed to take them to six games, when they were sent packing.

Goaltending: The two goalies in this series have been playing well with Miller having a slight edge in save percentage (.928-.916) and Emery having a slight edge in goals against average (2.04-2.07). However, based on the games I've watched, and I've seen most of them, I would have to give a slight advantage to Miller because he has had tougher saves to make and he appears to have faced more quality shots. Both goalies can expect a solid attack as both teams are capable of rolling four lines. To beat either goalie, the key will be getting men in front of the net and lots of shots on goal.

Defense: Both teams have great shut down d-men, the Sens with Redden and Bolchenkov. They really have a strong six and Buffalo gets a little weaker after four. Give the Sens the edge here.

Forward: Up front, both teams can roll four lines, however Ottawa's bottom two lines are really struggling right now and will need to get going soon. I'd give a slight edge to Buffalo on this one.

My Pick: Sens in 6

Western Conference:

#1 Detroit Red Wings (50-19-13) vs. #2 Anaheim Ducks (48-20-14): Season Series: tied 2-2

How these teams got to this point: The Red Wings knocked off the Calgary Flames in 6 games in round 1 and they defeated the San Jose Sharks, also in 6 games in round two. Meanwhile, the Anaheim Ducks sent the Nashville Predators pn vacation in 5 games and they ended my Vancouver Canucks dreams of a championship season in 5 games.

Goaltending: Although 42 years of age, Dominik Hasek is defying father time with his usual fine playoff performance. What makes him so tough to beat is that he never gives up on a play. However, Hasek is prone to injuries and the Red Wings have been somewhat lucky he's been healthy up to this point. At the other end of the rink is J.S. Giguere, who is showing his play of '02 when he went on a goaltending tear. His key to success is positioning and rebound control, 2 things he's done very well. This promises to be a low-scoring series with these two in net.

Defense: Ths series features four norris-trophy calibre defensemen, one of whom (Chelios) is the oldest active player playing a playoff game this year. Chelios is past his prime, but his teammate Lidstrom, is a favourite to win the Norris Trophy this season. With the Ducks Pronger and Neidermeyer play with separate partners, meaning they'll be on the ice pretty much the entire game. On the PP, Pronger loves to skate into the middle of the ice and wrist the puck through traffic. Both Pronger and Neidermeyer can really let it rip. Beauchemin and O'Donnell aren't too shabby either.

Offense: The Red Wings took a real gamble in dealing for Bertuzzi because he missed so much time with injury this season and to say the least he's inconsistent. Datsyuk, Calder and Zetterb are going to have to be the go-to guys for Detroit to be successful. The Ducks will counter with the rejuvenated Selanne who seems bound and determined to win the Cup this year. He's complemented by Getzlaf, Perry and McDonald. Kunitz and Rob Neidermeyer will be given the task of shutting down the Red Wing's top line.

My Pick: Wings in 7

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