MLB Season Preview: Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox


Last Season's Standings: The Boston Red Sox finished the 2006 season with a record of 86-76, including .500 in their final ten games to finish 3rd in the AL East.

In: SP Adam Bernero (prev. team: Kansas City Royals); SS Alex Cora; RF J.D. Drew (prev. team: LA Dodgers); SP Runelvys Hernandez (prev. team: Kansas City Royals); RP Travis Hughes (prev. team: Washington Nationals); SS Julio Lugo (prev. team: LA Dodgers); SP Diasuke Matsuzaka; 2B Joe McEwing (prev. team: Houston Astros); C Doug Mirabelli; SP Joel Pineiro (prev. team: Seattle Mariners); CF Kerry Robinson (prev. team: Kansas City Royals); RP J.C. Romero (prev. team: LA Angels); RP Mike Timlin; SP Tim Wakefield; RF Wily Mo Pena; RP Brendan Donnelly; SP Kyle Snyder; C Alberto Castillo; 1B Jeff Bailey; 2B Luis Jiminez; SS Ed Rogers

Out: RP Keith Foulke (new team: Cleveland Indians); SS Alex Gonzalez (new team: Cincinatti Reds); CF Willie Harris (new team: Atlanta Braves); C Ken Huckaby (new team: LA Dodgers); RF Gabe Kapler (retired); 2B Mark Loretta (new team: Houston Astros); C Corky Miller (new team: Atlanta Braves); RF Trot Nixon (new team: Cleveland Indians); 1B Carlos Pena (new team: Tampa Bay Devil Rays)

Starting Pitchers: The aging Curt Schilling, who went 15-7 with a 3.98 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 31 starts last season. Obviously, his fastball is top-notch, but he's also got an impressive array of off-speed pitches to get batters out. Schilling is a consistent control pitcher who is mentally tough. Schilling's competitive nature allows him to pitch through pain and on short rest. His one major weakness continues to be getting burned by the longball (28 balls sailed over the fence when he was on the mound in 2006), but even in those cases he allows so few base runners that even home runs don't hurt him too much. Following him in the rotation will be righty Josh Beckett. He went 16-11 with a 5.01 ERA while allowing a career-high 36 HR in 33 starts last season. He hasa nasty repertoire that includes mid-90's heat, a good change-up and a jaw-dropping curve -- not to mention poise. Every once in a while he'll hang a pitch and it'll get knocked out of the park. Blisters have been his biggest problem. Perhaps the most anticipated free agent signing of the 2006 free agent season in Japanese import Diasuke "Dice-K" Matsuzaka will be the third man in the rotation for the Red Sox. In his final year in the Japanese league, he went 17-5, including 13 complete games with a 2.13 ERA and 200 punch-outs in 25 starts. Dice-K is a real competitor on the mound. The comand of his low-mid-90's heater is impressive. He also has a slurvy curve (arguably his best pitch), sinker and forkball but often gets by with just the command of his fastball. Every once in a while his great curve hangs and gets blasted. The fourth starter will be aging knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield, who went 7-11 with a 4.63 ERA in 23 starts in 2006. The unpredictable movement of his knuckleball is his biggest asset, when it's working. It can make his straight 78-mph fastball look like big heat. He's a versatile pitcher who can pitch deep into a game and come back on short notice thanks to the easy knuckleball delivery. The unpredictable movement of his knuckleball is also his biggest flaw, when it's off. Holding runners on is not his forte at all. Finally, when the Red Sox need a fifth starter, Julian Tavarez will be the go-to guy. He was 5-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 58 appearances, 6 of those being starts last season. Tavarez has three good pitches (fastball, slider, change-up) and keeps the ball down, forcing hitters to beat the ball into the ground rather than lift it in the air. His biggest flaw is definitely his hot head, which can severely affect his command. There are a couple of other options to start in southpaw Jon Lester, who will start on the DL while recovering from cancer and start in A-class Greenville Drive. He went 7-2 with a 4.76 ERA in 15 starts before being diagnosed with cancer in 2006. Lester is a big lefty with a nasty fastball/slider/change-up arsenal. He's generally poised on the mound. His command lapses at times and he can be surprisingly easy for left-handed batters to pick-up. Righty Matt Clement will also start the year on the DL, and will likely be out for the bulk of the year after shoulder surgery in October of '06. Clement was 5-5 with a 6.61 ERA in 12 starts in 2006 before he was shut down for the remainder of the 2006 season. He's predominately a ground-ball pitcher, Clement throws an exceptional 2-seamer, a slurve, and an effective change-up. He's particularly effective against right-handed hitters and can put an end to a team's running game. Clement has been known to have problems controlling his darting arsenal of pitches. He tends to struggle a bit with runners on board.

Bullpen: Once again Johnathon Papelbon will assume the role of closer, but for how long will be dependent on how his shoulder holds up to the pressure of pitching so often. He went 4-2, notched 35 saves in 41 opportunities and had a miniscule 0.92 ERA in 59 appearances last season. Papelbon has a mid-90's fastball that darts as it approaches the plate, which he throws with great command. He adds a great splitter, the ability to be nasty on short rest out of the 'pen and the toughness to close. If he cut back on the amount of leadoff hits he allows, he'd be even more devastating. He doesn't have complete command of his off-speed stuff. Setting him up in the eighth will normally be Mike Timlin, but he's on the DL until the April 10th home opener with a strained oblique muscle. He was 6-6 with a 4.36 ERA and notched nine saves in 68 appearances in '06. Timlin doesn't back down from any hitter and is aggressive with all his pitches. He has mid-90's heat and a terrific slider that makes him tough on right-handed hitters. Timlin has a tendency to give up big hits at the wrong time. His mental make-up has cost him a closer's job in the majors more than once; he lacks confidence under pressure. Free agent signing Joel Pineiro will be a second option as a late innings reliever. He went 8-13 with a bad 6.36 ERA in 40 appearances that included 25 starts and a save. He keeps the ball in the park with disorienting movement on his low-90's fastball and effective change-up, but its his swooping curve that does most of the damage. Pineiro spends a little too much time concentrating on the base runners and ends up getting beat up by the batter. He needs to improve his endurance. A third option to setup and possible middle relief and likely to enter the ball game in the seventh is righty trade acquisition signing Brendan Donnelly, who went 6-0 with a 3.94 ERA in 62 appearances last season with the LA Angels. Donnelly is a thrower with hard heat and decent control, right-handed hitters are constantly baffled by his stuff. He has the endurance to pitch on consecutive days. He becomes slightly less effective with runners on and when he has to pitch from the stretch. Free agent signing and southpaw J.C. Romero will be a setup option from the left side. He went 1-2 with a bad 6.70 ERA in 65 appearances with the Angels in 2006. He can rack up the strikeouts thanks to a low-90's fastball with good movement. Romero has a nice slider that retires lefties. He fallsbehind in the count way too often thanks to his shoddy command. Rookie Javier Lopez is hoping to be entering his first full season in the bigs. He was 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 27 appearances last season. He throws a couple of different sliders from different arm angles, making him tough on left-handed hitters. Lopez is strong with runners in scoring position and can pitch on consecutive days. His velocity rarely pops out of the mid-80's, he's had command problems, and he has trouble against righties. A second rightie who has made the team and will be looking to stick around for the entire season is longman Kyle Snyder, who went 4-5 with a brutal 6.56 ERA in 17 appearances, 11 of them being starts last season. He can throw strikes with his mid-90's heat, curveball and change-up. His size gives him an edge. He's now had two surgeries on his right arm, so durability is a concern. Snyder has trouble when behind in the count. Rounding out the bullpen will be left-handed Japanese import Hideki Okajima who was 2-2 with a 2.14 ERA in 55 appearances last season in the Japanese league.

Designated Hitter: David "Big Papi" Ortiz will bat third and play 155+ games if healthy. He hit .287 with 54 HR, 137 RBI, walking 119 times, accumulating 355 total basess and finishing with a .656 slugging percentage last season. Every season, he's in the top 3 for MVP, but that's arguable whether he deserves the award since the only time he plays in the field is during interleague play and I suppose if the Red Sox make it back to the worls series. Power, power and more power. He can hit the ball out of the park to all fields, even in the clutch, and has surprising plate discipline for a big slugger. He's a very slow base runner who just looks bad on defense. Southpaws give him some trouble.

Catcher: Captain Jason Varitek will once again get the bulk of the starts behind the plate. He'll bat seventh in the line-up and play between 135 and 145 games if healthy. He missed the month of August to knee surgery in 2006. Varitek hit .238 with 12 HR and 55 RBI last season. Varitek is a great leader. He's a switch hitter with good power, most of it for doubles, and that's always an asset. In general, he hits well from both sides. Behind the plate, he's known for his poise and knowledge of opposing hitters. He'll flail at pitche way up and way down in the strike zone. He's useless with the bases loaded. Backing him up and knuckleballer Tim Wakefield's primary catcher is Dan Mirabelli. He hit .191 with 6 HR and 25 RBI last season. Behind the plate, Maribelli is a solid, dependable player. For a big guy he does well to get from a crouch to a throwing position so quickly. He has a strong and accurate arm and good power at the plate. A below-average hitter, Maribelli shows very little patience and has a tendency to chase pitches low and away. Imagine the typical catcher's speed and then think less.

First Baseman: Batting second and playing between 145 and 155 games if healthy will be Kevin Youkilis. He hit .277 with 13 HR and 72 RBI, scored 100 times and had 42 doubles in 2006. He's nicknamed "the Greek god of walks" for his incredible plate discipline. He's also got a steady line-drive swing that allows him to pound out doubles and his share of homers. He has a good glove at first base. Youkilis has base-clogging legs. He has struck out way too often as a big leaguer (120 times last season). Reserve man Eric Hinske will be the back-up. He hit .271 with 13 HR and 34 RBI with both the Blue Jays and the Red Sox last season. He's got decent power at the plate, along with the patience to hang in for a walk. He's even got surprising speed for a corner infielder and has grown into a strong and versatile fielder. He'll pile up a lot of strikeouts (79 in '06) and tends to lapse into mechanical difficulties with his swing. Far from growing, his power has actually regressed. As mentioned, Ortiz will break out a first baseman's glove for interleague play.

Second Baseman: Batting ninth and playing between 125 and 135 games if healthy is rookie Dustin Pedroia, who hit .191 with 2 HR and 7 RBI as a September call-up last season. The stocky little contact hitter rarely strikes out (just seven times in 2006). He also has great instincts and is a strong fielder at second or short, but better at second. The reason he's better at second is because his arm isn't the strongest. He doesn't have great legs on the bases, nor does he have much power. Utility man Alex Cora will back him up. He hit .238 with 1 HR and 18 RBI last season. Cora is an above-average fielder. He has the speed to go deep in the holes and the agility to turn tight double plays. Cora is a free-swinger, which results in a lot of strikeouts (struck out 29 times last season). Although quick in the field and around the bases, he can't read pitchers well enough to be a stolen-base threat.

Shortstop: Free agent signing Julio Lugo will bat leadoff and play 155+ games if healthy (he missed a month last season to an abdominal injury). Lugo hit .278 with 12 HR, 37 RBI and 24 stolen bases with the Devil Rays and Dodgers in 2006. He is a solid, run-producing player. He's got the base-running speed and smarts to steal and burn for extra bases. His defense is spotty at best. His plate discipline has been shoddy, but he's shown improvements. Cora or Pedroia will provide the back-up.

Third Baseman: At the hot corner, batting 6th and playing between 150-160 games if healthy is Mike Lowell, who hit .284 with 20 HR and 80 RBI last season. He is a solid defensive player with good power and RBI instincts, crushing the ball whether it comes from a left or right arm. He is a strong clubhoue-leader type. He's got to be sure of extra bases in order to get there with his plodding gait. Though he can make the plays he gets to, he lacks a quick first step to grab the balls a lot of other can get to. Hinske and Cora will provide the back-up.

Left Fielder: Manny "Man-Ram" Ramirez will bat clean-up, play between 15-160 games if healthy and should make at least one or two trade requests, as that's Manny being Manny. He hit .321 with 35 HR, 102 RBI, he got on base 43.9% of the time and has a .619 slugging percentage last season. As far as his bat goes, the question is, "What can't he do?". His smooth swing and long reach allow him to smash balls to all fields. He salivates with runners in scoring position and drives them home with Ruthian efficiency. And he does it all in the clutch too. Imagine how unstoppable he'd be if he cut down on his strikeouts (102 in 2006) and put more of those balls in play. Aside from that, he has a tendency to lose his focus on defense and on the bases. Willy Mo Pena will provide the back-up. He hit .301 with 11 HR and 42 RBI while missing 2 months of last season with various injuries. Pena has great size and five-tool ability, excelling with runners aboard. Combined with his drive, he projects to be a formidable player. There isn't a pitch he doesn't like to swing at, particularly against righties. Unfortunately, his bat doesn't always make contact on those swings, piling up the K's (struck out 90 times last season). His defense is a work in progress.

Center Fielder: The speedy Coco Crisp will bat eighth and play up to 145 games if healthy. He hit .264 with 8 HR and 36 RBI in 2006. Crisp has fleet feet on the bases and a steady swing with growing power. He's a strong bunter with a steady bat which he uses to slap the ball into the gaps and down the lines for extra bases. He's much weaker from the left side as a switch hitter. Crisp needs to improve his overall defense. Pena will back him up.

Right Fielder: Finally, free agent signing J.D. Drew will bat fifth and play between 145 and 155 games if healthy. With the Dodgers last season, Drew hit .283 with 20 HR and 100 RBI. Drew is the complete package. He has a cannon for an arm, plenty of speed and tons of power. He's also become a terrific hitter with runners in scoring position. Though he's gifted with natural speed, injuries are doing their best to slow him down. He struggles terribly against left-handers, especially for power. Hinske and Pena will provide the back-up.

Season Prediction: The Red Sox have a strong rotation and great line-up, but the question mark will be getting from the starters to Papelbon. The Yankees ultimately have too much money and thus the Red Sox will finish second in the AL East.