Monday, March 05, 2007

MLB Season Preview: Tampa Bay Devil Rays




Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Last season's Standings: In 2006, the Devil Rays went 61-101, including 3-7 in their final ten games to finish in the basement of the AL West.

In: RP Steve Andrade (prev. team: Kansas City Royals); RP Scott Dohman (prev. team: Kansas City Royals); CF Dustan Mohr (prev. team: Detroit Tigers); 3B Greg Norton; 1B Carlos Pena (prev. team: Boston Red Sox); SP Jae Kuk Ryu (via trade w/ Chicago Cubs); C Casanova; RP Shinji Mori; 3B Brendan Harris (via trade w/ Cincinatti Reds); SP Doug Waechter; RP Gary Glover (prev. team: Milwaukee Brewers); RP Al Reyes (prev. team: St. Louis Cardinals); LF Jason Grabowski (prev. team: LA Dodgers); 3B Akinori Iwamura; 1B Hee-Sop Choi (prev. team: Boston Red Sox); SS Jorge Velandia; SP Tony Peguero; C Yamid Haad; 3B Ty Wiggington; SP Seth McClung

Out: LF Andrew Lopez (via trade w/ Chicago Cubs); SP Greg Reinhard (via trade w/ Chicago Cubs); RP Jesus Colome (new team: Washington Nationals); RP Scott Dunn (new team: Oakland A's); SP Travis Harper (released); RP Brian Meadows (new team: Cincinatti Reds); SS Tomas Perez (new team: Chicago Cubs); RP Tyler Walker (new team: San Francisco Giants)

Starting Pitching: Righty Scott Kazmir will be the staff ace of this young pitching staff. He went 10-8 with a 3.24 ERA over 24 starts with 163 strikeouts. Kazmir boasts heat that tops out around 97 mph and regularly pitches in the mid-90's. He also has a great slider and emerging change-up. He has some work to do on his command and endurance. Aside from that, he needs to work on his curveball and his approach against right-handed hitters. Following him in the rotation will be second-year player James Shields, who went 6-8 with a 4.84 ERA in 21 starts in 2006. His arsenal leads off with a great change-up, backed by 93-mph heat and a solid curve. He tends to rely too much on his change-up. Righties hit him very well and he needs to keep his good stuff past the fifth inning. Southpaw Casey Fossum is slated to be the third starter in the rotation. He went 6-6 with a high 5.33 ERA in 25 starts in 2006. He's got good command over his entire arsenal, which includes low-90's heat and a nasty slider that keeps the ball on the ground. There is concern that his slender build will make him particularly injury-prone down the road and it has also led to endurance problems. The fourth starter will likely be righty Jae Seo, who was a brutal 3-12 with a 5.33 ERA in 36 appearances, 26 of those being starts. Seo owns a terrific splitter and a strong change-up to back up low-90's heat. He throws strikes and is tough on left-handed hitters. Right-handed hitters hit him hard. There are concerns about conditioning and consistency. Finally, sophomore Edwin Jackson will be entering his first full season in the majors, his first as a starter. He had a 5.23 ERA in 23 appearances, just one of those being a start last season. He easily pounds fastballs in at 98 mph aggressively and with movement, while complimenting it with an improving arsenal including a slider and change-up.

Bullpen: The Devil Rays will be employing the "closer by committee" strategy with righty Al Reyes likely getting the first opportunity to close games because he has the most experience. He went 4-2 and notched 3 saves with a 2.15 ERA in 65 appearances last season. Shawn Camp will likely also get some saves this season (he notched 4 saves in 2006) and went 7-4 with a 4.68 ERA in 75 games played in 2006. His good, improved change-up makes his sinking heat look good. Camp gets a little tougher with runners in scoring position. Left-handed hitters make a lot of good contact against him. He's not great on consecutive days. Sophomore youngster Ruddy Lugo is perhaps being forced to enter the majors before he's ready, but the Devil Rays have no choice becuase he's the third most experienced reliever. He was 2-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 64 appearances in his rookie campaign. Veteran Dan Miceli is coming off an injury-filled season in which he missed four months to an injury to his right shoulder. He went 1-2 with a 1.94 ERA in the 33 appearances he did make. Rookie Brian Stokes could be a vital part of the bullpen as he can pitch long relief which is what the Devil Rays will certainly need at least a few times this season. He went 1-0 with a 4.88 ERA in 5 appearances, four of those being starts, in 2006. Third year pitcher Chad Orvella should make the squad as a setup man, but is coming off an oblique injury. He was 1-5 with a brutal 7.40 ERA in 22 games played last season. His mid-90's heat looks hotter thanks to a jarring change-up. He can spot the ball anywhere and pitches well on little rest. Orvella needs to work on his approach in tight spots, particularly with runners in scoring position. He struggles against right-handed hitters. A second longman will be veteran righty Tim Corcoran, who went 5-9 with a 4.38 ERA in 24 appearances, 16 of those being starts. In camp but likely to start in AAA Durham is righty Juan Salas, who had a 5.40 ERA in 8 relief appearances in 2006. Finally, righty Gary Glover is an option as a final reliever, he went 5-4 with a 5.57 ERA in 15 appearances, 11 of those starts. Though he doesn't have blazing heat, he mixes his pitches well. As a starter, his endurance has much to be desired, tiring in the fifth inning. He gets flustered with runners aboard.

Designated Hitter: Normally the everyday DH will be Greg Norton, who will bat fifth in the line-up. Unfortunately, he's unavailable until May because of knee surgery. He should play between 125 and 135 games if healthy. Norton hit .296 with 17 HR and 45 RBI and had a .520 slugging percentage in 2006. His ability to get on base and hit for power off the bench is a major asset. The switch-hitter tends to hit poorly from the right side of the plate. Until he is healthy, Rocco Baldelli will be the primary DH. He batted .302 with 16 HR and 57 RBI last season. Baldelli is a speed-and-power hitter who has great instincts for the game, a steady bat and great range in center field. A better arm woulld make him a true five-tooler. He also needs to work on his plate discipline in a big way. Jonny Gomes, who hit .216 with 20 HR and 59 RBI in '06, will be the primary back-up. His great pure strength allows him to muscle the ball out over any fence and he excels against lefties. He tends to swing far too freely at the plate, leading to a lot of strikeouts and few walks (his 2006 strikeout-walk ratio was 116:61). Gomes can stand to improve his approach with runners in scoring position. A third option at DH is rookie Elijah Dukes, who is not only making his major league debut this season, but is doing so as the temporary starting center fielder. Once Norton is healthy again, look for Dukes to be sent to the minors to make room on roster for him. A fourth and final option to designate hit is starting first baseman Ty Wigginton . . . more on him later.

Catcher: Likely to be a full-time catcher for the first time is sophomore Dioner Navarro, who hit .244 with 4 HR and 20 RBI in 56 games as a Devil Ray last season. Navarro is a disciplined youngster at the plate and is a good switch hitter, though better from the right side. Behind the plate, he has a strong arm. Overall, he still has work to do on his defensive game and at the plate, he doesn't have a lot of power and struggles with runners in scoring position. Backing him up will be veteran back-up Josh Paul who hit .260 with 1 HR and 8 runs driven in last season. Paul can really get around on pitches low in the zone. He has surprising speed for a catcher and has shown a strong ability to capitalize with runners in scoring position. He strikes out way too much (39 times in 2006) and southpaws give him fits.

First Baseman: Over at first base will be Ty Wigginton who will bat clean-up and play between 135-145 games if healthy. He hit .275 with 24 HR and 79 RBI while getting on base 33.0% of the time and finishing with a .498 slugging percentage last season. Wigginton knows how to field the ball at the infield corners. At the plate, he has a fairly consistent bat with gap power. Wigginton strikes out a bit too much for his power level and doesn't walk enough (had a 97:32 strikeout-walk ratio last season). He hasn't fared well in the clutch. Backing him up will be Carlos Pena, who hit .273 with 1 HR and 3 RBI in 2006. He's able to generate impressive power with a quick, short swing. He's smooth around the bag with the glove and has surprisingly quick feet. The plate discipline and run-producing skills he showed in the minors have been slow to emerge in the majors. He's also had a tough time against southpaws.

Second Baseman: The speedy BJ Upton has beat out Jorge Cantu for the starters job at second base, forcing Cantu to start in Durham. Upton hit .246 with 1 HR and 10 RBI last season. Upton is a true five-tooler. He has growing power, great speed, a quick bat and good range and a cannon in the infield. He could do with a little more discipline at the plate, but his main flaws are defensive, where he needs to work on his footwork and fielding. The man he beat out, Cantu, hit .249 with 14 HR and 62 RBI in 2006. Cantu loves to swing at the first pitch and often does good things with it. He has good power, decent speed and is a solid defensive infielder. Plate discipline is definitely a problem that could haunt him in the future. Though he's a decent runner, he doesn't steal bases. With Cantu relegated to the minors, either Wigginton or rookie Brendan Harris, who hit .238 with 1 HR and 3 RBI as a September call-up last season, will back up. Harris is an athletic infielder, able to play second, third, or short quite well. At the plate, he hits line drives consistently with some pop. At times, he can be too intense and he could stand to walk more often (took a walk just 4 times last season).

Shortstop: Playing SS and batting second will be sophomore Ben Zobrist, who will play between 125 and 135 games if healthy. Zobrist hit .224 with 2 HR and 18 RBI in 52 games last season. He has good baseball instincts and works hard. Zobrist boasts good plate discipline and runs well, though he's not a big base-stealer. He's a steady switch-hitter and good defensive shortstop. Zobrist doesn't have any standout tools, with lackluster power and mediocre run-producing skills. Either Upton or Harris will provide the back-up.

Third Baseman: Patrolling the hot corner, batting sixth and playing between 135-145 games if healthy is Japanese import Akinori Iwamura who will be making his debut in North America in 2007. In his final year in Japan, Iwamura batted .311 with 32 HR and 77 RBI. He's a good all-around player with decent power and excellent skills at third base. Iwamura should project as more of a doubles hitter than a homer hitter in the majors. He strikes out a ton (128 times last season).

Left Fielder: Leadoff man and speedster Carl Crawford will play between 150 and 160 games if healthy. Crawford hit .305 with 18 HR and 77 RBI while scoring 89 times, stealing an impressive 58 bases and getting on base 34.8% of the time. The young outfielder has blazing speed and knows how to use it. He works hard to better all aspects of his game, in particular the mechanics of his swing and his power. Though he's cut down on his strikeouts (struck out 85 times last season), he also needs to take more walks (walked just 37 times in '06). In the field, he doesn't have much of an arm. Dukes and Gomes will back him up.

Center Fielder: As mentioned before, Elijah Dukes will be making his big league debut as the starting center fielder, at least until May when Baldelli can return to his regular position. Upton and Baldelli will back-up.

Right Fielder: Finally, playing right field and batting fifth will be rookie Delmon Young, who will get between 125 and 135 games if healthy. Young hit .317 with 3 HR and 10 RBI as a September call-up in 2006. This kid has monumental power and can take it out of the park the other way. He's also got a very consistent bat, some speed on the bases, and a great arm in the outfield. He could use some work on cutting down on his strikeouts (24 last season) and walking a little more (walked just once last season). Defensively, he needs to get a better jump on the ball. Gomes or Dukes will back him up.

Season Prediction: Lets face it, the pitching will be a daily adventure and this line-up won''t scare many beyond Crawford, Baldelli and maybe Wigginton. As a result, the Devil Rays will finish in the basement of the AL East for the third straight season.

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