MLB Season Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays



Last Season's Standings: The Toronto Blue Jays were quite pleased with their perormance last season, after passing powerhouse Boston to finish 87-75, including an impressive 7-3 in their final ten games. The Jays finished 2nd in the AL East.

In: DH Frank Thomas (prev. team: Oakland A's); SP Tomo Ohka (prev. team: Washington Nationals); SP John Thomson (prev. team: Atlanta Braves); SP Jo Matumoto; RP Pete Walker; C Greg Zaun; SP Victor Zambrano (prev. team: NY Mets); C Sal Fasano (prev. team: NY Yankees); RF Alex Rios; LF Reed Johnson; SP/RP Scott Downs; SS Ray Olmeda (waiver pick-up); 1B Lyle Overbay; CF Vernon Wells; 2B/SS John McDonald; 2B Jason Smith (prev. team: Colorado Rockies); RF Matt Stairs (prev. team: Detroit Tigers); C Jason Philips; SS Royce Clayton (prev. team: Cincinatti Reds); RP Matt Roney (prev. team: Oakland A's);

Out: LF Frank Catalanotto (new team: Texas Rangers); RP Justin Speier (new team: LA Angels); SP Ted Lily (new team: Chicago Cubs); C Benjie Molina (new team: San Francisco Giants)

Starting Pitching: Roy "Doc" Halladay will once again be the ace of this pitching staff. He went 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA in 32 starts while racking up 132 strikeouts. As long as he stays off the DL and doesn't miss any starts to a troublesome right forearm, he should challenge for the Cy Young award. Simply put, he has an incredibly gifted right arm. He has a hot fastball that smokes by hitters at up to 97 mph and a knuckle-curve that makes righties look like Little Leaguers. He's got tremendous intensity and drive on the mound. Base runners seem to distract him a bit and the longball is a problem at times (19 balls left the park off him last season). A second potential ace, though less consistent in A.J. Burnett will follow "doc" in the rotation. He went 10-8 with a 3.98 ERA despite missing the first 2 months of the 2006 season to a right elbow injury caused by scar tissue stemming from a Tommy John surgery earlier in his career. Burnett has worked very hard on his delivery. He has three main pitches that he throws quite effectively: a mid-90's fastball, change-up and a dizzying curve. His bat is proving to be a major asset as well. Command has been an issue for Burnett, but it is improving. His biggest flaw is a tendency to lose focus and he occasionally has trouble pitching from the stretch. He must pitch to his potential if the Jays are to compete this season. After Halladay and Burnett the rotation gets a little fuzzy starting with third year player and southpaw Gustavo Chacin, who went 9-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 19 starts despite missing 2.5 months last season to a similar elbow injury that Burnett went through. Working primarily with a low-90's heater and change-up, Chacin is really tough on left-handed hitters. His curveball too often falls flat and he needs to last beyond the sixth inning more often. Righty free agent signing Toma Ohka is slated to be the fourth starter. He was 4-5 with a 4.83 ERA in 18 starts with the Brewers. Like Burnett and Chacin, he missed 2+ months in 2006 wiith an injury, except it was to his back and not his pitching elbow. Ohka has good control and is economical with his pitches. He's not a power pitcher, but has good movement on his 92-mph fastball. When he starts to think he's a power pitcher, he gets in trouble. He must learn to bear down with runners on and two out and be less predictable on the first pitch. As a fifth starter, the Jays are taking a risk and going with Josh Towers, who had an atrocious year in 2006 going 2.8 with a brutal 8.42 ERA in 15 appearances, 12 of those being starts. In a lot of the starts he was hit hard early and out of the game before it was official in the fifth inning. The Jays sent him down to AAA Syracuse for three weeks from the end of May until the middle of June, where he received three or four more chances to start. He was then sent back to Syracuse until September, when he was recalled and relegated to the bullpen for his final 3 appearances. Towers must return to the form that bought him a 13-12 record with a 3.71 ERA in 32 starts in 2006. He had a great Spring Training and must now transfer those starts to the regular season. He's got magnificent command of the strike zone and manages to fool hitters despite a fastball that doesn't get much above 90-mph. He tends to give up more than his share of hits, but he's thrifty with the bases on balls (walking 17 batters last season) so it doesn't hurt him too much. He also tends to get too fine with control and that's when hitters catch up to him (17 balls went over the fence off him in 2006). Finally righty free agent signing John Thomson has also auditioned for a spot in the Jay's rotation, but it's unclear when he'll be able to pitch as he has discomfort in his pitching shoulder and is on the DL. This could be an extension of the shoulder problem that forced him to miss 2+ months. He went 2-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 18 appearances, 15 of those starts with the Braves in 2006. At times, he's had killer stuff against lefties, unafraid to bust them in tight. He's able to keep the ball low. Right-handed hitters generally spray his stuff all around the diamond and he tends to buckle under pressure in the late innings.

Bullpen: Southpaw B.J. Ryan will be the anchor of the bullpen. He didn't get much work in spring training due to a back injury, but it shouldn't cause much concern except perhaps a bit of rust in his first appearances. Ryan went 2-2 with a 1.37 ERA and 38 saves in 65 appearances in his first season as a Blue Jay. At 6-6, 260 pounds, he's huge and puts all his heft behind his fastball, making it almost impossible to see with his sneaky delivery. Left-handed hitters have yet to figure out how to handle him and he thrived under pressure. He's actually done a great job in recent years of improving on old flaws like wildness, giving up too many home runs (just 3 balls left the park off him in 2006) and streakiness. Setting him up will normally be righty Brandon League but he's working on a shoulder problem that caused his heater to drop a substantial 10 mph. He was 1-2 with a 2.53 ERA in 33 bullpen appearances last season. League's claim to fame is his ability to top the century mark on the radar gun. But it's the movement on his fastball and ability to back it up with a strong change-up and slider, that make him dominant. Even with that great heat, he's more of a ground ball pitcher than a strikeout guy (punched out 29 batters last season), which isn't a terrible flaw. In his absence righty Jason Frasor will take the hill in the eighth of a close game. He was 3-2 with a 4.32 ERA in 51 appearances last season. Despite his relatively small frame, Frasor cranks the heat into the mid-90's and his curveball can be unhittable. He can be very effective on consecutive days. Frasor struggles through the mid-summer dog days. Righty Jeremy Accardo, who went 1-1 with a 5.97 ERA in 27 appearances after being traded to the Jays midway through last season. Accardo can crank his heat into the mid-90's and has a promising slider. He tends to get stronger the more pitches he's thrown. Accardo has made some strides with his command, but he can always get better. Right-handed hitters pound him. Southpaw Scott Downs will serve as the lefty specialist and can pitch in middle relief as well as spot start if needed. He went 6-2 with a 4.09 ERA in 59 appearances, five of those being starts last season. When on his game, Downs throws strikes and keeps the ball down in the zone. He can be considered a typically crafty left-hander with great control and deception. When his pitches get up in the strike zone, he gets tatooed (just 9 balls left the park off him last season). Downs must show more resilience and a greater ability to log more innings. Righty Shawn Marcum, who went 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA in 21 appearances, 14 of them starts, should be a long man and entering his first full year in the bigs. Marcum has a nice slider to go with a 90-mph fastball, change and curve. He pitches tough and has good control. Left-handed hitters find him a little easier to hit. He needs to stay strong as his pitch count rises up over 80. In middle relief will be righty Casey Janssen, who went 6-10 with a 5.07 ERA in 19 appearaances, all but 2 being starts in 2006. Janssen throws a deep arsenal with good command, including a 90-mph 2-seamer, a slider, change-up and curveball. He induces a lot of groundballs. He doesn't have a real plus pitch. Janssen needs to stay strong with runners on and keep himself together in the second half. Rounding out the bullpen will be free agent signing Victor Zambrano who will fill in where necessary. He underwent Tommy John surgery last season and will be looking to stay healthy. Zambrano's arsenal is topped by a hard sinker and tough change-up. He's really murder on right-handed hitters and knows how to get out of trouble with runners on board. Command is his biggest problem, often falling behind in the count and giving away far too many free passes.

Designated Hitter: Free agent signing Frank "the big hurt" Thomas will be the clean-up hitter and should play between 135 and 155 games if healthy. Thomas hit .270 with 39 HR, 114 RBI, and a .545 slugging percentage last season. His mere presence is an asset. Opposing pitchers are intimidated when the 6-5, 275 pound Thomas stares them down at the plate. He can drive the ball to all fields with bone-crushing power and has a knack for getting on base any way possible. His bat and reaction time have slowed a touch, resulting in more strikeouts than usual (81 last season). Left-handers and finesse pitchers are giving him a hard time these days. Injuries are a concern. Backing him up will be Canadian Matt Stairs, who hit .247 with 13 HR and 51 RBI last season. Stairs draws power from his legs and manages to pummel the ball to all fields when he's on top of his game. He has deceptive speed buried in his squat body and can leg out doubles into triples when the opportunity arises. His power is monumental when he yanks the ball to right but pulling too much can get him into a rut where the defense knows exactly where to play him. Although he has deceptive speed, he has trouble reading pitchers' moves, so he won't steal a lot.

Catcher: Gregg Zaun will retain the starter's job after battling with the defensive-liability Bengie Molina all of last season for playing time. He hit .242 with 12 HR and 40 runs driven in last season. Zaun should bat seventh in the line-up and play between 125-135 games if healthy. He's a leader who handles pitchers very well. A disciplined switch-hitter, Zaun shows occasional power. Zaun tends to fade at the plate in the second half and falls flat in the clutch. He has little power against southpaws. Backing him up will be Jason Phillips, who hit .250 while driving in 6 runs as a September call-up last season. Phillips has the receiving skills of a #1 catcher in the majors. He's disciplined at the plate with a little power and hits righties and lefties equally well. He has a little trouble with breaking balls and doesn't run well.

First Baseman: The left-handed-doubles-hitting machine that is Lyle Overbay will bat 2nd and play 155+ games if healthy. He batted .312 with 22 HR and 92 RBI in 2006. Despite thje fact that he doesn't have monumental power, he has proven to be a good run producer. His discriminating eye at the plate and solid contact swing keeps him constantly on base. Again, his pure power has something to be desired and he slows down a bit in the second half. Providing the back-up will be either Phillips, Stairs or utility man Jason Smith, who hit .263 with 5 HR and 13 RBI as a September call-up last year.

Second Baseman: At second base will be youngster Aaron Hill, who hit .291 with 6 HR and 50 RBI last season. He'll likely bat eighth and play between 145-155 games if healthy. A hard worker, Hill's nice swing generates solid line drives with occasional power. He's disciplined at the plate and runs the bases well. Hill tends to slow down over the final couple of months. Backing him up will be utility men Smith or John McDonald, who hit .223 with 3 HR and 23 RBI last season. Throughout his pro career, McDonald's calling card has always been his defense, which is phenomenol. He can work for a walk and runs well. Not much bat at all. About all he can do is slap his way on with singles here and there.

Shortstop: At shortstop will be free agent signing Royce Clayton, who will bat 9th and play between 135-150 games if healthy. Clayton hit .258 with 2 HR, 40 RBI and 30 walks last season. Speed and defense make Clayton a shortstop pitchers love to have behind them. He has occasional pop in his bat. Impatience at the plate has led to Clayton striking out way too often (85 times in 2006). Age has robbed him of some of his base-stealing quickness. Smith and McDonald will provide the back-up

Third Baseman: Right power hitter Troy Glaus will be the main man at the hot corner, batting 5th and playing between 145-160 games if healthy. He hit .252 with 38 HR and 104 RBI last season. He may have the kind of big swing that makes him one of the top slugging third baseman in the majors, but he has a good eye at the plate as well. On top of that, he's a stellar defensive player, capable of mutiple Gold Gloves at the hot corner. His soulder injuries have become a big concern. Also, he strikes out a ton (a whopping 134 times in 2006), but his production balances it out. Backing him up will be Smith or Hill.

Left Fielder: Leadoff man Reed Johnson, who hit .319 with 12 HR and 49 RBI, while getting on base 39.0% of the times last season, will play between 130-145 games if healthy. Hustle is Johnson's strongest suit. He makes good, hard contact and hits well with runners in scoring position, slugging particularly well against lefties. He's a strong outfielder. His walks to strikeouts ratio (33:81 last season) is far from conductive to leading off and most of his struggles come against finesse-type pitchers and right-handers. Stairs will back him up.

Center Fielder: Vernon "V-Dub" Wells will start every game if healthy and bat 3rd in the order. He batted .303 with 32 HR, 106 RBI and 24 stolen bases last season. You could almost save the money on two other outfielders with the kind of range Wells has. He has a very strong arm as well. He's an aggressive line-drive hitter with power and RBI skills. Though he's speedy, he's not an aggressive base-stealer. He's a little too prone to the strikeout (struck out 90 times in '06) and not prone enough to taking a walk (walked 54 times last season). He tends to need protection in the line-up. Johnson will be the back-up.

Right Fielder: Finally, Alex Rios, who missed a month to a staph infection last season, will bat 6th and play between 135-145 games if healthy. He hit .302 with 17 HR, 82 RBI and 15 stolen bases last season. Rios' quick swing produces line drives to the opposite field and hid great speed turns doubles into triples. He has decent power and is a strong defensive outfielder. He needs to improve his overall consistency. Rios falls into ruts where he just can't hit anything. Johnson or Stairs will provide the back-up.

Season Prediction: The rotation after Burnett and maybe Chacin is a real question mark, as well as the bullpen leading up to Ryan. The Jays will finish third to the Red Sox and mighty Yankees.