Saturday, January 27, 2007

MLB Season Preview: Cincinnati Reds




Cincinnati Reds

Last Season's Standings: In the 2006 season the Cincinnati Reds went 80-82 to finish third in the NL Central, including 6-4 in their final ten games.

In: 2B Mark Bellhorn (prev. team: San Diego Padres); CF Bubba Crosby (prev. team: NY Yankees); SP Eric Milton; C Chad Moeller (prev. team: Milwaukee Brewers); RP Mike Stanton (prev. team: San Fracisco Giants); RP David Weathers; SP Paul Wilson; LF Dewayne Wise; SS Alex Gonzalez (prev. team: Boston Red Sox); SP Kirk Saarloss (via trade with Oakland A's); 1B Jeff Conine (via trade w/ Philadelphia Phillies)

Out: 3B Rich Aurilia (new team: SF Giants); SP Brandon Claussen (new team: Washington Nationals); SS Royce Clayton (new team: Toronto Blue Jays); SP Ryan Franklin (new team: St. Louis Cardinals); SP Sun-Woo Kim (new team: SF Giants); RP Scott Schoeneweis (new team: NY Mets); RP Jason Standridge (new team: NY Mets); RP David Shafer (via trade w/ Oakland A's); LF Jovan Moran (voia trade w/ Philadelphia Phillies); 3B Brad Key (via trade w/Philadelphia Phillies)

Starting Pitching: Staff ace Aaron Harang is coming off a career year and will need to equal or better his 16-11 record and ERA of 3.78 if the Reds are to be successful this coming season. Getting ahead in the count is key fopr Harang's success, which he tends to struggle with. Next in the rotation is Bronson Arroyo, who benefited from a change in scenery after being traded from boston before last season. He went 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA. It's important that he pitch into the seventh to save a youthful bullpen. Southpaw Eric Milton suffered through an injury-riddled season in which he finished .500 (8-8) with a brutal 5.19 ERA. He'll be looking to prove to management and the training staff that he's healthy and can be effective on the mound. Likely getting the fourth spot in the rotation is Kyle Lohse, although he has yet to have a season where his record has been .500 or better since 2003 when he was still with the Twins. He was 5-10 last season with an awful 5.83 ERA in 34 appearances, 19 of those being starts. He'll need to prove that he can work better against left-handed batters and that he can pitch beyond the fifth inning, otherwise he could be in the 'pen. Also battling for a spot in the rotation will be youngster Matt Belisle, who has battled through two injury-riddled seasons, playing in just 30 games last season, two of those as a starter. He needs to prove he's healthy. Rookie lefty Bobby Livingston will also be looked at as a possible fifth starter, but look for him to start the season in Louisville to gain more experience. Elizardo Ramirez missed the entire season last year to shoulder surgery and will be looking to prove to management that he's healthy again. Finally, long-arm Kirk Saarloss will get the opportunity to be the Reds fifth starter and he may have a good shot based on experience alone. He was 7-7 with with a 4.75 ERA in 35 games played including 16 starts.

Bullpen: There is no real anchor to this bullpen, at least heading into training camp, it will be closer by committee until someone emerges as capable of closing out a tight game. Weathers saved 12 games and went 4-4 last season in 67 appearances. The only real flaw against him is that runners have all day to steal against him. Weathers missed four games to a shoulder injury. Todd Coffey is likely to come into the ball game in the 8th to set-up the closer. He was 6-7 with a 3.58 ERA in 81 games played. He struggles against lefties. That means, Bill Bray may face the left-handed bats late in the ball game,seeing as he is a lefty himself. He was 3-2 with a 4.09 ERA in 48 games in '06. Another man in the mix for a set-up job, likely to come into the ball game in the 7th is Gary Majewski, who was 4-4 with a 4.61 ERA in 65 appearances last season. He needs to be better pitching with nobody on, which is surprising. Lefty Rheal Cormier is heading into the season knowing he's likely to be the Reds midle reliever. Look for him to come into the ball game in the 6th or 7th. Cormier was 2-3 with a 2.44 ERA in 64 appearances in the '06 season. Brian Shackleford will likely start the season in the bigs, but if he has a bad camp, he could wind up in Louisville, he was 1-0 with a brutal 7.16 ERA in 26 games played in '06. Lefty Mike Stanton was brought in to challenge for a bullpen spot and will likely be a third lefty reliever with the primary role as a lefty specialist. However, he is aging and there's no telling how effective he will be this season. Rookie Brad Sampson is entering his ninth major league camp and will start in Louisville but will be a call-up either as an injury replacement or as a September call-up. Finally, rookie Jared Burton will start in Midland, but he will get a look during training camp.

Catcher: David Ross will get the bulk of the games behind the plate. He has a strong throwing arm and can drive the ball; strikes out too much and is far too agressive at the bat. He will bat eighth, which is the customary batting spot for most catchers. Look for Ross to play around 100 games this season. Backing him up will be Joe Valentin, who is entering his fourth season in the Reds organization. He hit .269 including 8 HR in 186 AB's. He'll likely play at least once per week, and sometimes a bit more. Also in the mix for the back-up job is Chad Moeller, who is attempting to make the reds squad after three seasons in the Brewers organization; needs to hit the ball off the ground more. Look for Moeller to fight a tough battle, but lose out to Valentin and start the year in Midland.

First Baseman: Scott Hatteberg will once again be a key component of the Reds offense. A key free agent signing in the '05/06 offseason, Hatteberg hit .289 including 13 HR and 51 RBI'S. He'll need to equal or better that total. He should see hittable pitches hitting behind Griffey Jr. in the #3 hole. Look for him to play between 135 and 145 games if healthy. Backing him up is trade acquisition Jeff Conine, who provides the Reds with a solid pinch hitter, however he needs to be more consistent at driving in runners late in the game as that will be his primary role.

Second Baseman: Brandon Philips is a baseball player who is blessed with natural abilities, he just needs to improve his defense and consistency throughout the season. Look for Philips to hit seventh in the Reds line-up and to play around 150 games if healthy. His primary back-up should be utility man Juan Castro, who should start around 50 games and pinch hit in several other games. He'll be fine as a defensive replacement, but don't look him to start against many southpaws, because he's brutal against the left-handed pitcher. Ryan Freel can also play second base, although he'll likely play primarily in the outfield, more on him later. Finally, rookie Jeff Keppinger will also get a look at, but he'll likely start in AAA Midland for further fine-tuning.

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez is likely to bat 2nd in the line-up and play between 100-115 games in the '07 season. He'll be looking to prove to management that the back problems that plagued him are behind him. He hit .255 with 9 HR and 50 runs batted in. Backng him up will be Castro and rookie Jerry Gil, who has just 29 major league games under his belt and wil likely start the season in Midland.

Third Baseman: Entering what should be his first full season in the majors, Edwin Encarnacion is looking to prove that he's healthy and ready to play as an everyday play for the first time, he missed the final month of the season with an ankle injury. Encarnacion hit .276 with 15 HR and 72 RBI last season in 117 gamees played. Look for him to hit 6th and play 115-125 games if healthy. Casto will serve as the primary back-up. Freel and Keppinger can also play the hot corner.

Left Fielder: Adam Dunn combines with Hatteberg and Griffey Jr. to form a solid middle of the line-up. Dunn will hit 5th in the batting order. He has a lot of power and hit 40 HR last season. His strikeout total is a major concern, at an ungodly 194 total at the end of last season. In the field, he has a weak arm, odd considering he's a former QB. Don't be surprised if he plays all 162 games, although manager Jerry Narron will likely make this workhorse sit a game or two to save him. Backing him up will be a combo of Conine, Freel and free agent signing Bubba Crosby. Crosby is looking forward to more game action after being stuck in the loaded Yankee outfield for much of his career. The number of games he plays will likely be determined by the health of Griffey Jr. Rookie Norris Hopper is also in the mix, but due to lack of MLB experience (just 21 games) he'll all but certainly start in AAA ball. Unfortunately, at this point rookie Josh Hamilton lost a few years of development due to drug problems (steroids) and thus he'll need to show management he can play the game without relying on cheating otherwise his major league career could be over before its begun.

Center Fielder: Training Camp has yet to begin and already injury-prone clean-up hitter and former-Mariners star Ken Griffey Jr. is nursing an injury (broken wrist). Since joinin the Reds in 2000, he has had just once season where he's been pretty healthy (2000 when he played 145 games). Because of the injuries, his numbers are incoonsistent, but when healthy, he can kill the ball and shine defensively. Look for the Reds to be extra cautious with Griffey Jr. and his health. Crosby will likely play at least 50-75 games as the back-up in center field. Ryan Freel can also play center field, but he'll likely play mostly in right field.

Right Fielder: Ryan Freel is entering his second full season in the majors and is looking to build on his success in his first full one. He has a fair amount of speed and will need to use it as the lead-off batter in this line-up. He stole 37 bases, hit .271, blasted 8 homers and knocked in 27 runs last season. Look for him to play between 125 and 135 games in '07. Conine and Crosby will be his primary back-ups. Chris Denorfia will be battling for the last outfield spot and a place on the Reds bench. He hit .283 in 106 at-bats last season. Hopper and Hamilton will also be looked at, but both will likely start in Midland.

Season Prediction: I think the Reds should be in contetion for a while, but unfortunately, their line-up seems too inconsistent and their bullpen is a question mark. The Reds will finish '07 in 4th place in the NL Central.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

MLB Season Preview: Chicago Cubs






Chicago Cubs

Last Season's Standings: The team from the North went 66-96, including a mediocre 4-6 in their last ten games to finish dead last not only in the NL Central, but the entire National League.

In: C Henry Blanco; 2B Mark DeRosa (prev. team: Texas Rangers); LF Cliff Floyd (prev. team: NY Mets); SP Ted Lily (prev. team: Toronto Blue Jays); SP Jason Marquis (prev. team: St. Louis Cardinals); SP Wade Miller; SS Tomas Perez (prev. team: Tampa Bay Devil Rays); 3B Aramis Ramirez; LF Alfonso Soriano (prev. team: Washington Nationals); 1B Daryle Ward (prev. team: Atlanta Braves); SP Kerry Woods; Manager Lou Pinella (prev. team: Tampa Bay Devil Rays; RP Neal Cotts (via trade w. Chicago White Sox)

Out: Manager Dusty Baker (fired); 1B John Mabry (new team: Colorado Rockies); CF Jaun Pierre (new team: LA Dodgers); RF Micheal Restovich (new team: Washington Nationals); LF Freddie Bynum (via trade w/ Baltimore Orioles); RP David Aardsma (via trae w/ Chicago White Sox); SP Carlos Vasquez (via trade w/ Chicago White Sox)

Starting Pitching: There are many questions to be answered with regards to their starting rotation. Ace Carlos Zambrano had a fine year last season going 16-7 in 33 starts with a decent 3.41 ERA. He has questions with command and that can lead to rough starts. It will be important that he remains healthy all season long. Free agent acquisition Ted Lily's questions are to do with his consistency. He goes through stretches where he can be very effective and stretches where he can be absolutely horrendous. He also had a run-in with then-manager Jay Gibbons when he didn't agree with getting pulled from a start. With Lou as his boss, he can't have any temper tantrums. He was 15-13 with a 4.13 ERA in 33 starts last season. Third starter Jason Marquis had a terrible final three starts lasting one lousy inning in the final regular season start and just 2.2 innings in his third-to-last start. Although he was only 2 games under .500 (14-16), Marquis allowed a brutal 6.41 runs per outing. It's unreasonable to expect, even the most powerful offensive team, to bail you out after allowing a lot of runs early and often. He needs to get into the 7th more frequently this coming season, something he accomplished just 11 times last season in 33 starts. Rich Hill is entering is third season in the majors and he's hoping to make it his first full season. He was 6-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 17 starts last season. He needs to be better in the middle innings and this southpaw can struggle with his command. For potential 4th or 5th starter Mark Prior, the key will be whether he has fully recovered from his shoulder injury. He played only nine games last season before going down with a season-ending shoulder injury. If he's not ready or able to perform effectively, trade ascquisition Wade Miller could find himself with a spot in the rotation. Miller will need to be on early in the season, something which he struggles with, otherwise he'll find himself in AAA Iowa. He also needs to keep his concentration with runners aboard on the batter. Miller was 0-2 as a September call-up in five starts with a decent 4.16 ERA. Sophomore Sean Marshall will be looking to build on his rookie campaign after going 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA in 24 starts. He missed 37 games to a rib injury. Marshall needs to establish a good first-strike pitch and to deepen his arsenal. Finally, Angel Guzman will get some consideration but look for him to start the season in Iowa.

Bullpen: Canadian Ryan Dempster is the closer and anchor to this deep bullpen. He had an ok campaign last season. However, on top of saving 24 games, he also blew at least ten save opportunities which is high for a pitcher your counting on to close out a one-run or two-run ball game. He'll be looking to bounce back from last season and to prove to Pinella that he can be counted on to slam the door shut when the ball is handed to him. Setting him up in the eighth will be former ace Kerry Woo, who is also coming off a shoulder injury, which limited him to just 4 starts last season. Look for him to start by pitching one inning max, and if all goes well, he may eventually work his way to either long-relief duty or maybe even a spot in the rotation. Lefty trade acquisuition Neal Cotts will also be a setup man to Dempster, as well as serving as a left-handed specialist. Cotts was 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA in 70 appearances in '06. A third reliever who is capable of setting up is rightie Bob Howry, who's bread and butter and pretty much only effective pitch is his fastball. Look for him to come in to the game in the 7th. He was 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in 80 appearances last season. Lefty Scott Eyre is the primary lefty specialist on this squad. Because of his stamina questions, he'll pitch an inning max, but more than likely just a batter or two an outing. Roberto Novoa should be a middle reliever for the Cubs and come into the game around the 6th inning. He was 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA last season. Willie Ohman is a third lefty out of this deep bullpen who should get some work against LH batters. He was 1-1 was a 4.13 ERA in 78 appearances last season. Micheal Wuertz will get a shot to show what he can do, but he'll have to turn smoe heads at camp otherwise, he'll start the year in Iowa. He was 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 41 appearances in the '06 season. Entering just his second MLB campaign Wes Walrohnd will all but certainly start in Iowa and be either an injury call-up or a September call-up. He was 0-1 in 10 appearances, two of those being starts and he had a bad 6.23 ERA. Sophomore Carlos Marmol heads into training camp feeling pretty good about his rookie campaign going 5-7 with a brutal 6.08 ERA in thirteen starts and a further 9 appearances out of the bullpen, not bad considering it was his first taste in the majors. He'll start in Iowa. Finally, rookie Jae Kuk Rae will get a look in training camp but he'll also start in Iowa. He was 0-1 with a brutal 8.40 ERA over ten appearances as a September call-up.

Catcher: Micheal Barrett was slowed by the injury bug last season and as a result only played 107 games. He's a solid catcher and can hit the ball. Look for him to play between 120-125 games this season while batting 6th. His back-up will be a battle between veteran Henry Blanco and rookie Geovany Soto. Blanco should have the edge due to more experience and the fact that he's good defensively. Soto has just a dozen games of experience under his belt and can benefit from at least a partial season of AAA ball. Also in the mix is rookie Jose Ramirez, who will certainly be in Iowa at the start of the season, but may get in a game or two in Spring Training in a split squad game.

1st Baseman: Derrick Lee is the heart and sole of this ball club. He'll hit clean-up, and if healthy, should be in the running for MVP. Unfortunately, he missed significant time last season to a broken wrist and also the final eleven games of the season to a family emergency. Assuming Lee is healthy, he'll easily play 150+ games this coming season. Backing him up is the aging Cliff Floyd. The big question mark for Floyd will be the health of his leg. He missed 22 games with a torn achilles tendon, and as a result he played just 97 games last season. Floyd still has plenty of power and will drive in plenty of runs. Also in the mix will be Daryle Ward who will see a reduced role in the Cubs organization, likely being called upon to pinch hit primarily.

2nd Baseman: Free agent signing Mark DeRosa will start the bulk of the games at second base. He has improved significantly over the years, going from a utility infielderto a legitimate starter. He's strong in the field and good at the bat, except in the clutch. Look for him to bat second in the line-up. DeRosa should play between 120 and 130 games in '07. Backing him up will be utility infielder Ryan Theriot, who is entering what should be his first full season in the bigs. He'ss good in the field and is a good contact hitter, but he doesn't have a lot of power and the general tools to play every day.

Shortstop: Cesar Iztruis struggled through an injury-plagued season in which he was healthy enough to play in just 59 games. He'll be looking to prove to management that he is healthy enough to play this season. If healthy, he'll play between 110-120 games and bat 8th. Backing him up will be sophomore Ronny Cedeno, who is entering his second full season in the majirs and is out to prove his rookie campaign was no fluke. Also, Theriot can play SS, should Iztruis not be healthy enough to play.

3rd Baseman: All-star Aramis Ramirez has controlled 3B for the Cubs the last three seasons and inked a five year extension in the off-season. He'll play 155+ games if healthy and bat 3rd in the batting order. Fielding could be an adventure for Ramirez. Backing him up will be rookie Scott Moore, who could wind up in Iowa to start the season for more game action.

Left Fielder: Matt Murton has earned an everyday spot in the line-up and will bat 7th. Murton doesn't have a strong fielding arm but makes up for it by being a pretty decent hitter. Look for him to play between 135-140 games this coming season. Backing him up could be Floyd, but he'll likely primarily either pinch hit or play 1st base to save his legs. Instead look for Angel Pagan to get the bulk of whatever games Murton sits out. Strikes out way too much and struggles as a right-handed batter, but Pagan is solid in the field and very fast on the base path.

Center Fielder: This is going to be interesting, after his first year as an outfielder Alfonso Soriano moves over to Center Field where he'll have to cover significantly more ground to snag fly balls. Luckily he's known for his speed and thrives in those kinds of situations. He'll bat lead-off and be expected to get on base early and often. Soriano will play 155+ if healthy. Backing him up will be Felix Pie who will get a chance in spring training to make the squad but will need to turn some heads and camp and is all but certain to start the year in Iowa.

Right Fielder: Playing right field and batting fifth for the Chicago Cubs is Jacque Jones. The former-Twins All-star. He's great in the outfield but far too impatient at the plate, often flailing at pitches way out of the strike zone. Nonetheless he'll be expected to contribute by driving in a good portion of the runs. He'll play around 150 games next season. Backing him up will be be rookie Buck Coats who is likely to start the season in Iowa.

Season Prediction: The Cubs success will come down to the health and effectiveness of their starting pitching. If the Cubs offense provides decent run support and their starters pitch deep in ball games and the bullpen shuts the door, the Cubs will contend for first place. However, if a few pitchers get hurt or throw too many stinkers, than they'll finish as low as fourth in the NL Central. Howeve, I'll stick my neck out and pick them to finish second in the NL Central, simply because the Reds, Astros, Brewers and Pirates are weaker teams on paper.

Monday, January 15, 2007

MLB Season Preview: Houston Astros




Houston Astros


Last Season's standings: The Houston Astros went 82-80 last season, including 8-2 in their final 10 games; good for second in the NL Central.

In: 2B Craig Biggio; LF Carlos Lee (prev. team: Texas Rangers); 2B Mark Loretta (prev. team: Boston Red Sox); C Eric Munson; SP Woody Williams (prev. team: SD Padres); SP Jason Jennings (via trade w/ Colorado Rockies); SP Miguel Asencio (via trade w/ Colorado Rockies)

Out: CF Willy Tavares (via trade w/ Colorado Rockies); SP Jason Hirsh (via trade w/ Colorado Rockies); SP Taylor Buchholz (via trade w/ Colorado Rockies); 1B Jeff Bagwell (retirement); SP Andy Pettite (new team: NY Yankees); RP Russ Springer (new team: St. Louis Cardinals); 2B Joe McEwing (new team: Boston Red Sox); 3B Aubrey Huff (new team: Baltimore Orioles); RP Mike Gallo (new team: Colorado Rockies)

Starting Pitching: The Houston Astros have lost one and possibly two pitchers to free agency (Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens). That means that Roy Oswalt is the ace of the starting staff. He'll be out to prove that he can be completely healthy for a whole season. Oswalt missed thirteen games last season because of a sore back. When healthy though, he's very effective proven by his 15-8 record and solid 2.98 ERA. He'll pitch a lot of innings, look for him to accumulate 210-230 innings pitched next season. Acquired in a trade this off-season, Jason Jennings will likely be the #2 starter in the Astros rotation. Jennings is coming off somewhat of a comeback season after fracturing a finger on his pitching hand in the '05 campaign. Jennings went 9-13 with a decent 3.78 ERA last season in 32 starts. He'll be looking to pitch .500 or better next season. Third starter Woody Williams missed a good chunk of last season with a calf injury. He still went 12-5 in 24 starts. He'll need to repeat that performance if the Astros want to have success next season. Third-year player Wandy Rodriguez should stick to the majors full-time this season. However, he needs to proe he can get through 6 innings at least relatively unscathed. This southpaw can't seem to establish a first-strike pitch he can count on. You can tell when he's on because he produces a lot of ground ball outs. Rodriguez went 9-10 with a mediocre 5.64 ERA in 30 appearances, 24 of them starts. Finally, rookie Matt Albers will certainly get some consideration for a spot as the Astros fifth starter, but he'll likely start the year in Round Rock. Look for the Astros to sign another starter to compete for a starter/long reliever role.

Bullpen: Closer Brad Lidge is the undisputed go-to guy in the ninth. He saved 32 games last season and is pretty much lights out in close games late. He needs to work on his performance against lefties and be better in night games. Entering his third full season, Chad Qualls is looking to build on his career high 7-3 record with a decent 3.76 record in 81 appearances. Look for him to come into the game in the 6th or 7th inning. Dan Wheeler is likely to be the go-to-guy in the 8th with the game on the line. Wheeler was 2-5 with a solid 2.52 ERA in 75 appearances last season. The lefty specialist is Trever Miller who went 2-3 with a 3.02 ERA last season in 70 appearances. Look for him to pitch an inning or two max. per appearance. Fernando Nieves is auditioning for the fifth starters job but is most effective as a mid-late innings guy. Look for him to earn the fifth starters job but also get some work as a reliever. He was 3-3 with a 4.20 ERA in 40 games played. Finally rookie Chris Sampson will be looking to earn a spot as a long-middle reliever in the Astros 'pen, although he's likely to start the year in Round Rock. This means that the Astros may not be done their wheelings and dealings this off-season.

Catcher: Brad Ausmus is the undisputed #1 starter for the Astros, although, he is aging and as a result his numbers are dwindling. Look for him to start between 120-130 games next season. Also look for him to hit 8th in the line-up. Backing him up will be likely Humberto Quintero. Although he has a lack of experience, he's likely had enough time in the minors to earn him a permanent spot on the Astros roster. Although, the Astros could still sign a veteran back-up to compete for the job.

1st Baseman: Lance Berkman has earned a spot as an everyday player at this position with is bat and power. He's coming of a .300 batting average over the '06 campaign, as well as a career-high 45 HR. He'll be looking to repeat those numbers, as well as being likely to play around 150 games this season, assuming he's healthy. Back-up utility infielder Mark Loretta will almostr certainly have a reduced role in the Astro's organization. He spent last season as the Red Sox go to guy at second base. Look for him to get into around 100 games this season. Berkman should be the 5th man up in the line-up

Second Baseman: In likely his final season in the majors, the aging Craig Biggio will get the bulk of the work at 2B. He needs to avoid getting hit by pitches, thus to help avoid injuries. He has a bum right knee and will likely need maintenance days throughout this marathon of a season. Look for him to play between 125 and 135 games this season. Chris Burke and Loretta will likely split whatever games Biggio sits. Biggoio will likely bat 6th in the batting order.

Shortstop: Adam Everett is a workaholic who will play 150 games this season. He needs to get better at not striking out so often, especially since he lacks power. Everett will likely hit 3rd in the line-up. The primary back-up should be Eric Bruntlett, who is entering his first full season of service in the majors. Bruntlett hit .277 in 119 AB's last season.

Third Baseman: At third base is Morgan Ensberg, who struggles with consistency. He has a tendency to pull the ball to left far too much, struggles mightilt against righties and is just plain inconistent game-to-game. He's likely to get between 115-130 games this season and to bat 7th in the line-up. His back-up is Mike Lamb who could see time at first base. Not a real power hitter, has difficulty reading breaking stuff. He's not the greatest defensive player. Loretta is also an option at third base.

Left Fielder. Clean-up man and major free agent signing Carlos Lee is coming off a .300 batting average, 37 homer season. Expectations are high for this slugger. He's expected to carry this team on his shoulders and drive in an ample amount of runs. He could well end up playing every game this season, something he almost did last season and actually did in 2005.

Center Fielder: With the trade of Willie Tavares this off-season Chris Burke finally gets a chance to prove what he can do every day, knowing he's starting in center field. His defense is likely to be an adventure and he needs to read the pitcher better when stealing. He could even play 162 games, however, it's more likely Jason Lane will start a handful of games in center field. Burke will bat 2nd in the line-up.

Right field: Sophomore Luke Scott will be looking to stick in the majors as a fourth outfielder. He hit .299 with 20 HR and 63 RBI's in 318 AB's. Jason Lane, the starting right fielder will bat lead-off. Look for Lane to play between 120 and 135 games this season.

Season Prediction. The Astros can finish anywhere from second to fourth in the NL Central, so I'll predict they'll finish third.

Friday, January 12, 2007

MLB Season Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks





Arizona Diamondbacks

Last Season's Standings: The Arizona Diamondbacks were a bad 76-86, good for 4th in the NL West after winning the season series with Colorado, but losing the season series to LA. They were 4-6 in their final 20 regular season games.

In: SP Randy Johnson (via trade with NY Yankees); SP Juan Cruz; RP Jorge Julio; SP Doug Davis (via trade w/ Milwaukee Brewers); SP Dave Eveland (via trade w/ Milwaukee Brewers); CF Dave Krynzel (via trade w/ Milwaukee Brewers)

Out: C Johnny Estrada (via trade w/ Milwaukee Brewers); SP Claudio Vargas (via trade w/ Milwaukee Brewers); RP Greg Aquino (via trade w/ Milwaukee Brewers); SP Miguel Batista (new team: Seattle Mariners); RP Randy Choate (new team: Minnesota Twins); SS Craig Counsell (new team: Milwaukee Brewers); SS Damion Easley (new team: NY Mets); LF Luis Gonzalez (new team: LA Dodgers); RP Mike Koplove (new team: Florida Marlins); RP Luis Vizcaino (via trade w/ NY Yankees); SP Ross Ohlendorf (via trade w/ NY Yankees); SP Steven Jackson (via trade w/ NY Yankees); SS Alberto Gonzalez (via trade w/ NY Yankees)

Starting Pitching: He's back! Two seasons being traded to the NY Yankees; Randy Johnson was traded back to the Daiamondbacks after 2 disappointing seasons with the Yankees. His stint with the Yankees got off to a rocky start with a confrontation with a cameraman as he was walking down the street. He is aging and his stuff isn't quite as good as it was in his prime, but its still better than most other pitchers. He has had back problems off and on the last few seasons and the D-backs would be wise to listen to Johnson and give him maintenance days when needed. He was 17-11 in 33 starts with an elevated 5.00 ERA last season; he struck out an impressive 172 batters. Johnson will likely be the #2 starter behind ace Brandon Webb. The defending NL Cy Young winner will be looking to repeat his performance of 16 wins next season with a fine 3.86 ERA and 178 K's. Webb established career high's in wins, strikeouts, and a career-low in walks allowed. The #3 starter should be ex-ace Livan Hernandez. He's not the most agile pitcher in the world and does have difficulty getting to first base quickly and covering bunts; he struggles against southpaw hitters. Hernandez was 13-13 in 34 starts with a 4.86 ERA and 126 K's. He needs to pitch 200 innings to take a load of the bullpen. Lefty Doug Davis is another inning-eater and adds to this already deep starting staff. Davis was 11-11 last season with a not-so-good 4.91 ERA. He needs to improve his concentration with runners aboard and his game against righties. Finally, rookie Edgar Gozalez should have a shot at his first full major league season. Although, he needs to prove to the coaches that he's ready to handle the challenge. If not, he'll start the year in Tuscon.

Bullpen: Career set-up man Jose Valvedere will have a good shot at the closer's spot in the D'backs 'pen, he saved 18 games last season and proved he can handle the role. He needs to prove to management that he has the mettle to close consistently and he needs to work on his pitching arsenal. His ERA of 5.84, record of 2-3 in 44 appearances last season is not exactly closer numbers. Brandon Medders will likely start the year as set-up man to Valvedere; heis numbers from '06 were 5-3 with a 3.64 ERA in 60 games. He had shoulder problwms last season and may need to adjust his delivery as it is very awkward. Brandon Lyon, a second setup man, does not have overpowering stuff, so if his command is off then he'll get hit. his numbers from last year? 2-4, 3.89 ERA, 46 K's, 22 BB's in 68 games played. RP Tony Pena will be considered for the closer's role as well as middle-relief duty but don't be surprised if he starts the year in Tuscon. Middle/long reliever Juan Cruz suffered through an injury-riddled season where he missed a quarter of the season. He was 5-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 31 appearances, with half of those being starts. Tends to have mechanical issues, resulting in lots of walks. Doug Slaten will be looked at but should start the year in Tuscon. He allowed no runs in 5.2 innings as a September call-up. Veteran reliever Jorge Julio will make his appearances in the middle-to-late innings. He was 2-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 62 appearances last season. Getting ahead of hitters is key for any pitcher, but for Julio it is critical for success. His rough patches tend to last a few games. When he's on, is virtually unhittable. Finally, sophomore Dana Eveland is vying for a middle-long relief spot in the Diamondbacks bullpen. He should have a decent shot at making the squad.

Catcher: This should be Chris Snyder's third season as the Diamondbacks primary catcher. Snyder calls a great game, has power, but tends to over-swing resulting in a lot of strikeouts. Look for him to get between 70-90 games this season. The back-up job will be a battle betwen sophomore Robby Hammock and rookie Miguel Montero. Hammock likely has the edge as he has more major league experience, however if Montero has a good spring training he could find himself in Arizona to start the season. Snyder should bat 8th in the line-up.

First Baseman: Last season, third year player Conor Jackson proved he was ready for major league service. He had a respectable average of .291. He's mediocre on defense, poor as a base runner, his offensive skills at the bat are what keep him in the line-up every day. He should bat 5th and play between 135-150 games next season, assuming he's healthy. Tony Clarkn is coming off shoulder surgery and should be primarily a pinch-hitter with between 20-30 starts at first base. He's not good at reading pitches (lets good ones go, swings at bad ones). He has tremendous power and connect with pitches way off the plate; below-average in the field. Look for him to bat 6th in this lineup.

Second Baseman: Orlando "O-dog" Hudson started an insane 157 games last season and the only reason he didn't start more was because he missed three games towards the end of the season because of personal reasons. He has great defensive skills and can grab balls that seem impossible to get. This switch-hitter is terrible from the right side of the plate, but has great power and has tremendous energy and instincts. Backing him up and likely to start just a handful of games is Alberto Collaspo. Hudson will bat 7th in the batting order

Shortstop: It could be interesting at shortstop as currently Stephen Drew is the only shortstop with any major league experience signed at the moment. Look for the Diamondbacks to sign a utility veteran to a contract. He had an impressive .316 average during his roookie season. Look for him to bat 2nd in the lineup.

Third Baseman: Currently, Chad Tracy is the only player in the organization with major league experience. He played 152 games and should play around that many in '07. Again, signing a utility man capable of playing a number of infield positions should be a priority for the Diamondbacks. Luckily, he's a versatile defender, but he's not outstanding. He has difficulty against lefties. He hit .281 in 597 AB's last season. He should bat 3rd in the line-up next season.

Left Fielder: Eric Byrnes is expected to provide a lot of the offense on this team. This switch-hitter struggles against righties, but plays the game hard and loves facing southpaws. Look for him to play between 135 and 145 games and bat clean-up, at least to start the year. Backing him up is Scott Hairston, whose dedication is in question; strikes out way too much. He has great natural ability. Look for him to get a ten game trial as left fielder, after that, who knows? Carlos Quentin will also likely get some time in left field, but he'll be fighting for the #1 right fielder's job. Jeff DaVanon is coming off an ankle injury and will be looking to prove to management that he's healthy and ready to fight for a starter's spot in center and right field. He was hitting .290 before he went and got hurt.

Center Fielder: If Chris Young makes this squad as the starting or back-up center fielder as he's supposed to, it'll be his first full season in the majors. He'll be battling DaVanon for the job. Rookie Dave Krynzel is also in the mix, but he'll all but certainly start the season in AAA Nashville. Young hit .283 in 30 games last season including 2 home runs. Look for Young to bat lead-off.

Right Fielder: Quentin and DaVanon will battle it out for the tarters job in training camp, with the winner batting 5th in the batting order. Hammock will be considered but is likely the team's back-up catcher.

Season Prediction: I expect the Arizona Diamondbacks to contend for 1st in the NL West. If their pitching holds, they can take first place; otherwise they may end up last in the NL West because they will struggle to score, as their outfield especially is inexperienced and not great offensively.

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

MLB Season Preview: LA Dodgers







LA Dodgers


Last Season's Standing: The LA Dodgers grabbed the Wild Card Spot last season, going 88-74 in the regular season, including 9-1 in their last ten games. Unfortunately, they lost in the NLDS in a sweep to the NY Mets.

In: SS/1B Nomar Garciaparra; LF Luis Gonzalez (prev. team: Arizona Diamondbacks); C Ken Huckaby (prev. team: Boston Red Sox); C Mike Lieberthal (prev. team: Philadelphia Phillies); 2B Ramon Martinez; CF Juan Pierre (prev. team: Chicago Cubs); SP Jason Schmidt (prev. team: SF Giants); RP Travis Smith (prev. team: Atlanta Braves); SP Randy Wolf (prev. team: Philadelphia Phillies)

Out: RF J.D. Drew (new team: Boston Red Sox); RP Eric Gagne (new team: Texas Rangers); C Toby Hall (new team: Chicago White Sox); CF Kenny Lofton (new team: Texas Rangers); SP Greg Maddux (new team: San Diego Padres)

Starting Pitching: The LA Dodgers allowed one aging former star in Greg Maddux walk and brought in 33 year old Jason Schmidt. Although not as consistent as Maddux is, he gets the job done. Schmidt needs to get into the 7th a bit more consistently and will need to keep his pitch count down early by issuing fewer walks. He's a solid ace. Derek Lowe should follow Schmidt to form a formidble 1-2 punch. Lowe needs to get back to 2002 when he won 21 games. Players love pounding his first pitch and he needs to keep runners off the bases, as he simply can't hold them. However Lowe is a great ground ball pitcher. Penny needs to provide at least six solid innings of work, which he has trouble with. He needs to equal or exceed his 16-9 record from last season. Penny is pretty inconsistent and is typically a .500 pitcher for his career. Lefty Randy Wolf will be looking to prove that his elbow problems of 2 seasons ago is behind him. He was a perfect 4-0 in 12 starts last season. The Dodgers should be wary of his second half troubles with wearing down. Also, late in games is where he starts to lapse. Sophomore Chad Billingsley will be looking to avoid a sophomore slump and continue his successful rookie campaign in his sophomore season. Billingsley was an impressive 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA last season. Mind you, bloggers, Dodger Stadium is known to be a pitchers ball park with deep outfield walls.

Bullpen: The bullpen of the Dodgers is whre things could get interesting. The Dodgers will start the season with a brand new closer, as the injury-riddled Eric Gagne has departed to Texas. In his place, at least to start, is slated to be 2nd year Japanese import Takashi Saito. He went 6-2 with 24 saves and a solid 2.07 ERA in his inaugural MLB Season. The challenge will be repeating that performance. Setup man Yhency Brazoban is recovering from Tommy John surgery and likely won't be ready for spring training. How much the Dodgers can count on him remains to be seen. In his absence, lefty Joe Beimel is an option. He went 2-1 in 62 appearances last season with a decent 2.96 ERA. He tends to be a pretty mediocre southpaw. Look for Jonathon Broxton to be a setup man from the right side until Brazoban proves he's game-ready. Middle reliever Elmer Dessens will be looking to improve upon his 5-8 record, 4.85 ERA. Success against lefties are a trouble spot for this rightie; can struggle to find the strike zone, leading to more hittable pitches. Brett Tomko has been penciled in as a long-reliever/spot starter; he was 8-7 with a 4.73 ERA last season. Eric Stults will likely start the year in Las Vegas to gain more experience and get called up in case of injury. Tim Hamulak was mediocre in his appearances going 0-3 with an inflated 6.35 ERA in 33 appearances. Hong-Chih Kuo should start the year in the Dodgers 'pen as a long reliever, however he needs to show management that he can perform consistently at a high level. He was 1-5 with a 4.22 ERA in '06. Finally southpaw Mark Hendrickson, the former basketball player-turned baseball pitcher. Hendrickson is by no means overpowering and needs command of his pitches to be successful. He'll be battling Kuo for the final spot in the Dodger's bullpen. The loser will start the year in Las Vegas.

Catcher: Canadian Russell Martin certainly took full advantage of the opportunity to play evvery day in his first full season. In fact, he was so good that the Dodgers traded away their #1 from last season in Dioner Navarro to Tampa Bay. Martin will have some competition heading into Spring Training as the Dodgers signed former Phillies Catcher Mike Lieberthal to a contract to provide some friendly competition at the position. He is aging but will definitely get the opportunity to grab the #1 job. Both catchers handle pitchers well. Look for the job to be split between the catchers, with the younger Martin getting slightly more games. Martin will hit 7 or 8 in the line-up.

First Baseman: The last few seasons have been injury-riddled for former all-star Nomar Garciaparra. He's at first base to hopefully prevent injuries in the field. As long as he's healthy, Garciaparra will play anywhere from 100-120 games this season. He should hit 3rd in the Dodgers lineup. Aging veteran Jeff Kent will play likely around 15-20 games at first base. He's also coming off a tough year injury wise and will be looking to stay healthy as well as avoid his mid-season slump at the plate. Olmedo Seanz should stand a good chance of cracking the Dodger's roster as a back-up to Garciaparra, but the bulk of his playing time will be pinch-hitting. Rookie James Loney will be considered but I would expect him to start the year in Las Vegas.

Second Baseman: Kent will get the bulk of his playing time at second base. Backing him up will be utility infielder Ramon Martinez, who should get the bulk of his playing time at second. He's fantastic in the field, but needs to work on his at-bats against power pitchers. Another utility infielder who should see time at second is Marlon Anderson. He'll likely be seen more in left field where It's less likely for him to goof up a routine play. Too aggressive at the plate. Look for Kent to hit 6th in the lineup.

Shortstop: Speedster Rafael Furcal controls this position. Furcal puts the "every" in every day player. He only took three games off last season. He's a workhorse but he commits a lot of errors, possibly because of being overworked. Expect him to lead off and play around 150 games next season. Martinez will play at shortstop when Furcal is getting a rest or if he's injured. Should Furcal suffer a long-term injury early in the season, Wilson Betemit can play SS.

Third Baseman: Betemit will receive the bulk of the starts at third base. He'll play between 135 and 145 games next season and bat 7th in the line-up. Like Furcal, Betemit has his share of follies in the field and needs to cut down on the errors to be successful. Seanz will like back-up Betemit most days.

Left Fielder. Former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez has signed on with the Dodgers for another season and is a workhorse like Furcal, sitting just 9 games all of last season. He won't have to play as much this season as the Dodgers are deep in the outfield. His arm strength has waned with age but he's still effective with the bat and should hit clean-up for the Dodgers. Sophomore Andre Ethier will have a reduced role with the signing of Gonzalez and should get around 85-90 games this season. Third year player Jason Repko is coming off a broken ankle and will likely back-up Andre Ethier in right field primarily. Second year player Matt Kemp will be fighting for the fourth outfielder position but is likely to start the year in Las Vegas. Another player who will get a look is rookie Delwyn Young, but the Dodgers will be mainly looking to see how he has developed. Finally, when he's not playing second base or pinch hitting, Marlon Anderson may also get a game or two or perhaps a few more in left field. His defensive apprehensivenes may keep him to primarily pinch hitting duties.

Center Fielder: Another speedster in Juan Pierre will be starting in Center Field and batting 2nd. Pierre is just about incapable of hitting more than singles or doubles. Any homer is a fluke. However, his speed will keep pitchers off their game when he's on the bases. Ethier, Kemp and/or Young will play backup.

Right Fielder. Ethier is penciled in as the Dodgers right fielder and should bat 7th. Ethier will be looking to repeat his successful rookie campaign, where he hit .308 and committed just 6 errors in the field. Backing him up will be a combination of Repko, Kemp, and/or Young.

Season Prediction: I expect this to be a very trying year for manager Grady little, especially when it comes to watching his team in the field. The bullpen is young and the hitters are a mix of veterans and slap hitters who will have their moments trying to score. This team will finish 4th in the tight NL West.

Monday, January 08, 2007

MLB Season Preview: Colorado Rockies




Colorado Rockies


Last Season's Standings: The Rockies went 76-86 last season and were .500 in their last ten games. They were dead last in the NL West Divison

In: RP Eric DuBose (prev. team: Baltimore Orioles); RP Mike Gallo (prev. team: Houston Astros); RP Danny Graves (prev. team: Cleveland Indians); RP LaTroy Hawkins (prev. team: Baltimore Orioles); SP Byung-Hyung Kim; 2B Kazuo Matsui; CF Willy Tavares (via trade w/ Houston Astros); SP Jason Hirsh (via trade w/ Houston Astros); SP Taylor Buchholz (via trade w/ Houston Astros)

Out: RP David Cortes (new team: SF Giants); RP Nate Field (new team: Florida Marlins); RP Justin Hampson (new team: San Diego Padres); RP Ray King (new team: Washington Nationals); RP Jose Mesa (new team: Detroit Tigers); RP Mike Venafro (new team: Minnesota Twins); SP Jason Jennings (via trade w/ Houston Astros); SP Miguel Asencio (via trade w/ Houston Astros)

Starting Pitching: Staff ace Aaron Cook will be looking to improve upon his abysmal 9-15 record and 4.23 ERA. These are not legitmate ace pitcher numbers and Cook knows it. He needs to at least pitch .500 ball and better if the Rockies expect to go anywhere next season. Canadian Jeff Francis is the second oitcher on this staff, assuming the Rockies don't acquire another pitcher before spring training either through free agency or a trade. Francis went a respectable 13-11 with a 4.15 ERA last season including a 2-hit shutout against the mighty St. Louis Cardinals. Coors Field is traditionally a hitters ballpark. The third pitcher on the Rockies depth chart is Josh Fogg. Fogg will be looking to equal or better his 11-9 record from last season. He needs to pitch into the 7th or better as much as pssible to save a bullpen that will be seeing a lot of innings next season. Byung-Hyun Kim will be forever known as the pitcher who almost cost the Arizona Diamondbacks the World Series. As a starter, he's not much better going 8-12 with a brutal 5.57 ERA. He needs to get better control of his pitches with his side-arm delivery. The fifth and final starter's spot will be a toss up between sophomore Taylor Buchholz and rookie Jason Hirsch. Expect Buchholz to get the nod unless Hirsch can really turn some heads with some solid spring training starts. More than likely Hirsch will start the year in Colorado Springs, with the AAA team.

Bullpen: Closer Brian Fuentes needs to get to the point where he can pitch consecutive days without having his performance suffer. He has good, hard stuff and it'll be utilized often this season. Expect him to make b/w 70-75 appearances, with around half being save opportunities. Southpaw Jeremy Affledt needs to make sure his command is there night in, night out, because he sure won't blow any hitters away with his velocity. Look for him to make his appearances against mostly left-handed batters in the later innings. He can also be used as an emergency starter for a few innings. Sophomore Ramon Ramirez is vying for a setup/middle relief role in the Rockies bullpen. He should stand a pretty good shot as he went 4-3 with a good 3.46 ERA last season in 67.1 innings. Manuel Corpas is looking to earn a spott as a middle reliever. He'll have to prove he's major-league ready. He'll likely start the year in Colorado Springs. Denny Bautista is likely penciled in as the Rockies middle-long reliever. He can do spot starts as well. Ubaldo Jiminez will likely start in Colorado Springs as well, and is looking for a long reliever spot in the Rockies 'pen. Finally, veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins is all but certain to be spotted somewhere in the Rockies bullpen, likely as a setup man.

Catcher: The catching situation in Colorado could be interesting as the guy slated to be the #1 catcher has been a back-up his whole career. Yorvit Torrealba has only played 76 games in one season. He'll be playing at least 100 games. His endurance could be a question mark. Torrealba will hit 8th in the Rockies line-up. Backup Chris Iannetta has had all of 21 games of experience in the bigs, but he'll likely start the season in Colorado unless the Rockies sign another catcher. Look for third catcher Alvin Colina to be a September call-up.

1st Baseman: Todd Helton is the heart and soul of this team. If he's not in the line-up or in a slump, the Rockies have trouble scoring. Helton hit .302 and will need to equal or better that to keep these Rockies competitive. Helton will be the cleanup hitter. At this point, rookie Jeff Baker is the only player with experience at first base who can give Helton the odd day off. He'll be soaking it all in on the bench most games.

2nd Baseman: Jamey Carrol is another key part of the Rockies line-up. He's a decent performer and will likely hit 6th and be expected to drive in runs, which he struggles to do on a consistent basis. Carrol's back-up is Japanese bust Kazuo Matsui. There was a huge hype about him when he first came over from Japan 3 seasons ago, but it quickly became clear that the hype was all for naught as his average was bad, he strikes out too much and seems intimidated by the big-league game. He's now a back-up in Colorado and fighting to stay in the line-up consistently. 3rd backup Clint Brmes will likely play more at shortstop than at second base. He'll also pinch hit. Same with Matsui with pinch hitting.

Shortstop: Look for Troy Tulowitzki to get a good hard look, but he'll likely start the season as either the backup in Colorado Springs. Expect Barnes to get the bulk of the playing time at shortstop. Barnes would hit 5th in the line-up. Matsui and Carrol could also see some time at shortstop.

3rd Baseman: Garrett Atkins is the primary third baseman for the Rockies. He's not great in the field, but can contribute offensively and should hit 2nd in the line-up. Atkins has a strong arm. Backing him up are Baker, Carrol and Barmes with Baker likely getting the bulk of the work. Atkins should play about 145-155 games.

Left Fielder: Matt Holliday is yet another long-serving Rockie who put up career numbers in average, HR and RBI's. He'll be looking to aim that high again. He'll see plenty of hittable pitches with Helton in the on-deck circle. Look for Holliday to play about 150 games if he stays healthy. When Holliday's not in the line-up, Cory Sullivan will be in his place. Sullivan has the tools, but his stuff isn't good enough to be an everyday player unless there's an injury. Baker can also play Left field.

Center Fielder: Speedster Willie Tavares will patrol center field and bat lead-off. He's a real spark plug who could be a catalyst to the offense. His speed makes center field an ideal position for Tavares. Battling for the backup job will be Sullivan, Choo Freeman and rookie Jeff Salzaar, who will all but certainly start the year in Colorado Springs. Freeman will likely primaily pinch hit and play backup.

Right Fielder: Former Vancouver Canadian Brad Hawpe patrols Right field for the Rockies and should bat 2nd for the team. His defense is still a work of art and he needs towork on his AB's against southpaws. Other than that Hawpe should be an asset to this team and will see 135+ games. Backing him up will be Baker, sophomore Ryan Spilborghs and Freeman. Expect Spilborghs to start in Colorado Springs.

Season Prediction: I expect the Rockies to struggle offensively. Their pitching could be a big factor in how they perform. Look for this team to finish the '07 season in the basement of the NL West.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

MLB Season Preview: San Francisco Giants


San Francisco Giants



Last Season's standings: The San Francisco Giants went 76-85 to finish 3rd in the NL West. However, the Giants were terrible in their last ten games winning just once.

In: 3B Rich Aurilia (prev. team: Cincinatti Reds); LF Barry Bonds; RP David Cortes (prev. team: Colorado Rockes); 2B Ray Durham; 3B Pedro Feliz; 1B Ryan Klesko (prev. team: San Diego Padres); RP Steve Kline; C Benjie Molina (prev. team: Toronto Blue Jays); OF Dave Roberts (prev. team: San Diego Padres); 1B Chad Santos; SP Barry Zito (prev. team: Oakland A's); SP Russ Ortiz (prev. team: Baltimore Orioles)

Out: OF Moises Alou (new team: NY Mets); 1B Shea Hillenbrand (new team (LA Angels); SP Jason Schmidt (new team: LA Dodgers); RP Mike Stanton (new team: Cincinatti Reds); C Todd Greene (new team: SD Padres)

Starting Pitching: The San Francisco Giants caught the big fish of the free agent season, landing lefty ace Barry Zito. It will be interesting to see how well Zito lives up to his mega bucks contract. Zito went 16-10 with a 3.83ERA in the '06 season in 34 starts. Entering just his second full season of major league experience, Matt Cain is expected to log big innings for the Giants. He put up respectable numbers in '06 going 13-12 with a 4.15 ERA. He'll need to equal or better those numbers if the Giants expect to compete next season. Free agent signing in '05, Matt Morris is expected to have the #3 starter's job lined up. Morris is coming off an injury-ridded season in which his performance was affected because he was pitching through multiple fractures in his rib cage. When healthy, Morris can be very effective, pitching deep into ball games on a fairly consistent basis. Rookie southpaw Noah Lowry should be in the hunt for the #4 or 5 spot in the Giants' rotation. He'll be out to build on last season's experiences. Finally the final spot in the Giants' rotation will be a toss-up between Jonathon Sanchez, who will likely start the year in triple A Fresno and Brad Hennessey. I'd give the edge to Hennessey on paper, as he has more Major League experience, but Lowry could turn a few heads with some solid Spring Training starts. Russ Ortiz, recently signed, should have the heads-up on the #4 spot, meaning Lowry will be fighting for the 5th and final starter's spot. Ortiz went 0-8 last season in 26 starts with a brutal 8.26 ERA. He'll be looking at this season as a fresh start with a new team.

Bullpen: Hard-throwing rightie Armando Benitez will once again be the go to guy in the ninth inning. However, he is coming off a knee injury that forced him to miss the final 25 games of the season. He'll need to prove that the knee and leg problems are behind him heading into training camp. Should Benitez not be ready to pitch at the start of the season, Tim Worrell has proven in the past that he is capable of closing out tight games. Otherwise Worrell is a very capable setup man for Benitez. Rightie Kevin Correia should have a pretty good shot at being a second setup man or a middle reliever from the right side. Acquired in a midseason trade last year Vinnie Chulk will be looking for more consistency and to lower his career-high ERA of 5.25 from last season. The lefty specialist should be rookie Jack Taschner, although he was brutal in his 19.1 innings of work last season, getting pounded for 23 runs and an 8.38 ERA. Brian Wilson is another rookie who will be considered for bullpen duty, although he's all but certain to start the year in either Fresno. Three other pitchers will be considered in training camp, but they will likely start the season in the minors: Scott Munter, Billy Sadler and Patrick Misch.

Catcher: Off-season acqusition Benjie Molina will receive the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the Giants. He will have a great deal of difficulty throwing out base runners on a consistent basis and his running game is simply non-existant. However he's great at handling pitchers. Sophomore Eliezer Alfonso will battle with veteran Mike Matheny for the baack-up job of about 50-60 games. I'd give Matheny the edge simply because he's a proven performer. However, the Giants could opt for a catcher with better offensive numbers.

1st Baseman: This position will be filled by yet another free agent signing, as Rich Aurilia is returning for a second stint with the Giants after spending the past three sesons in Seattle, San Diego and Cincinatti. This time, he'll be playing across the diamond from where he was in his first stint with the Giants (he was the 3b, now he's at first base.). Aurilia can play anywhere in the infleld and can serve as the primary back-up for Pedro Feliz and the second back-up for Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham. Backing him at first base should be Ryan Klesko, who can also back up in left field. Klesko is coming off a major shoulder injury in which he missed most of last season, he'll be out to prove that the injury is behind him and that he can play at the level of which he is capable. Should he be unable to play, Lance Niekro, another inury-plagued player will serve as a back-up to Aurilia. A fourth back-up is Mark Sweeney. Sweeney played the bulk of the games at first base last season, he needs to be better at the plate.

2nd Baseman: As mentioned speedster Ray Durham will be the leadoff hitter and play the majority of the time. He can be a defensive liability, but his speed on the base paths is what keeps him in the line-up game after game. He also needs to improve his patience at the plate. Rookie Kevin Frandsen will likely get the opportunity to fight for the back-up job and get the opportunity to pinch-hit. He lacks experience in the majors.

Shortstop: Omar Vizquel is one of the top shortstops in the league and is great in the field as well as being a solid hitter. Recently, for whatever reason, he's had difficulty against right-handers. He'll likely hit 6th in the line-up. Frandsen will likely serve as his occasional back-up, either that or Aurilia.

3rd Baseman: Pedro Feliz is another hitter who will get a lot of pitches to hit as he'll likely hit 2nd in the Giants line-up. He also has speed to burn. He'll strike out a lot because of his free swinging. Aurilia or Frandsen will back him up.

Left Fielder: This is perhaps the most intriguing position on the Giants as Barry Bonds has returned for another season. He is likely going to hit the milestone 756 HR sometime in August or September, assuming he's not in jail or injured by that point. Bonds will require maintenance days and won't play the 2nd of a double-header or back-to-back games where the first is at night and the second is in the day. So that means that Todd Linden should receive around 80-90 games as a starter. When it's late in the game, Bruce Bochy may also opt to throw Klesko, Winn, Roberts or Sweeney out in left field.

Center Fielder: Dave Roberts will be the primary center fielder. Roberts has a lot of speed to burn which makes him an ideal center fielder. However, Roberts won't face a lit of left-handed starters which means Randy Winn could receive a couple of handfuls of games in center field. Winn has been a disappointment since his days in Seattle and will be looking to get back to his former all-star self. He also has a very weak arm. 3rd year player Jason Ellison will be looked at, but expect him to start the season in Fresno. Fred Lewis will all but certainly start the season in Fresno due to lack of major league experience but will get a close look by the coaches.

Right Fielder: Randy Winn will be the primary right fielder. . see center fieldder for more about him. When not in left field Linden will pinch-hit and serve as Winn's backup. Ellison could also see time in right field.

Season Prediction: Where the Giants end up in what could be the tightest race in the majors is dependent on new ace Zito, the offense and new catcher Molina. I expect to see the Giants in the hunt for the West Division title as well as the Wild Card. I'll stick my neck out and pick this team for the wild card, second in the West.

Thursday, January 04, 2007

MLB Season Preview: San Diego Padres

With a month to go before Major League Baseball re-opens its doors for training camps, I will preview one team a day for the next month starting in the NL West and ending with the AL East and the Toronto Blue Jays





San Diego Padres



Last Season's Standings: The San Diego Padres went 88-74, good enough to win the NL West Division title. However, it was all for naught as they were knocked out in the NLDS in 4 games by the St. Louis Cardinals.

In: SS Manny Alexander; 3B Geoff Blum; 3B Russell Branyon; CF Mike Cameron; RP Doug Brocail; 2B Marcus Giles (prev. team: Atlanta Braves); RP Justin Hampson (prev. team: Colorado Rockies); SP Greg Maddux (prev. team: LA Dodgers); 2B Todd Walker; C Todd Greene (prev. team: SF Giants); SP Shawn Estes; SS Manny Alexander

Out: 2B Mark Bellhorn (released); SP Dewon Brazelton (new team: Kansas City Royals); RP Alan Embree (new team: Oakland A's); 1B Ryan Klesko (new team: San Francisco Giants); C Mike Piazza (new team: Oakland A's); OF Dave Roberts (new team: San Francisco Giants); SP Woody Williams (new team: Houston Astros); RP Scott Williamson (new team: Baltimore Orioles)

Starting Pitching: Veteran Greg "Mad Dawg" Maddux is the aging ace of this staff at this point, barring any unforeseen trades or signings. Maddux is entering his 21st season in the majors. He'll be a great mentor for youngsters like Jake Peavy, who are looking to build their arsenal. Peavy will be looking for a solid season and redemption after losing his only start in the 2006 postseason, which put his team in an early hole, of which they would never climb out of.. Chris Young looks to have the #3 starter's spot locked up. He went 11-5 with a 3.46 ERA in 31 starts. He'll have to continue that kind of consistency to help the Padres repeat as the West Champs. The final 2 starter's spots will be a duel between rookies Clay Hensley, Mike Thompson and Tim Stauffer. The loser will likely start the '07 campaign in triple A Portland affiliate.

Bullpen: All-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman will once again anchor this bullpen. He should be lights out most of the time he gets the ball in the ninth inning. Last season Scott Linebrink established himself as a solid set-up man. Rookie Cla Meredith is entering what would be his first full season in the majors. He'll be looking to Hoffman as his guide. Scott Cassidy will also be fighting for a spot in the Padres' 'pen. Middle relievers will likely be taken by Doug Brocail, who is aging and is likely a year or two from retirement and injury-prone reliever Scott Strickland. This bullpen is a mix of fresh-faced rookies with little major-league experience, aging veterans and injury-prone, aging pitchers. It will be important that these pithers are ready to learn on the job because they'll likely receive a lot of innings this season.

Catcher: With veteran Mike Piazza gone to the Oakland A's, veteran back-up Josh Bard will get the bulk of the work behind the plate, with sophomore Rod Bowen and Canadian Pete Laforest battling for the back-up job. Bard appeared in quite a few games down the stretch in 2006 to save aging catcher Piazza for the playoffs. He has proven he handles pitchers well, has a fine arm and blocks the plate well. This could be a big test to see how he performs with the #1 job and increased workload. The catcher will hit just ahead of the pitcher in the Padres line-up. Catcher Todd Greene has recently inked a 1-year deal and will be in the mix for the back-up job.

1st baseman: Adrian Gonzalez is a great above-average first baseman on the field and can provide some offence. He should be a great addition to the line-up. Utility infielder Russell Branyon will also be asked to start a handful of games to give Gonzalez some rest. Rookie Paul McAnulty will likely start the season either on the bench or in Portland. Gonzalez should be around the # 6 or 7 spot in the line-up.

2nd Baseman: Veteran Marcus Giles is coming over from having spent his entire career to date with the Atlanta Braves. He'll be looking to better his totals from last year and to bring down his strikeout total, which is not one to cheer about. Giles has remarkable hustle and determination. Staying healthy will be key. Veteran Todd Walker will be accepting a lesser role this season playing back-up to Giles. Utility infielder Geoff Blum can also play 2nd base but will likely serve as SS Khalil Greene's back-up primarily. Giles should be the second man to bat in the Padres line-up.

Shortstop: Greene has turned inro an up-and-coming star with his great defense and ability to turn pretty DP's. He makes consistent contact at the plate but needs to be more patient. His speed also needs to be taken advatage of. Blum is a resilient infielder who can play any infield position except catcher and 1st base. He'll be valuable to this team in giving veterans days off. Greene should hit in the #3 hole

3rd baseman: Rookie Kevin Kouzmanoff is entering his first full season in the majors and will be battling Blum and Branyon for playing time. The Padres may yet fill this position through the few free agents left or a trade. . . stay tuned.

Left Fielder: Jose Cruz Jr. signed a one-year deal to control LF for the Padres. The former Mariners star has been inconsistent in his career, especially out in the field. Has incredible speed that will put him at the top of the line-up card night in-night out. He'll likely be backed up by Terrmel Sledge. Sledge is still learning the game but has the potentional to be the fourth outfelder at this time.

Center Fielder: Speedster Mike Cameron will be the clean-up hitter expected to drive in a lot of runs for this team. Cameron will be looking to improve on his career high in hits and to get back to being a .300 hitter. It's important that Cameron stays healthy all season as the Padres might find themselves having a tough time scoring consistently.

Right Fielder: Brian Giles is a consitent batter, but struggles with the accuracy of his arm in the field. As a result he has a tendency to throw the ball away when making a play to the plate. He does have a tough time against southpaws. Look for Giles to be the #5 hitter on the line-up card.

Season Prediction. The Padres are a young team, especially in the bullpen and will have a rollercoaster season, with some likely disappointments at the start of the season, while pitchers make their mistakes. The offense should be able to hold the Padres in most games. I believe that the Padres will fight to the end but will fal short to three-peat as division Champs, but they'll be in the hunt for the Wildcard. The Padres will be third in the NL West.