MLB Season Preview: Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs

Last Season's Standings: The team from the North went 66-96, including a mediocre 4-6 in their last ten games to finish dead last not only in the NL Central, but the entire National League.

In: C Henry Blanco; 2B Mark DeRosa (prev. team: Texas Rangers); LF Cliff Floyd (prev. team: NY Mets); SP Ted Lily (prev. team: Toronto Blue Jays); SP Jason Marquis (prev. team: St. Louis Cardinals); SP Wade Miller; SS Tomas Perez (prev. team: Tampa Bay Devil Rays); 3B Aramis Ramirez; LF Alfonso Soriano (prev. team: Washington Nationals); 1B Daryle Ward (prev. team: Atlanta Braves); SP Kerry Woods; Manager Lou Pinella (prev. team: Tampa Bay Devil Rays; RP Neal Cotts (via trade w. Chicago White Sox)

Out: Manager Dusty Baker (fired); 1B John Mabry (new team: Colorado Rockies); CF Jaun Pierre (new team: LA Dodgers); RF Micheal Restovich (new team: Washington Nationals); LF Freddie Bynum (via trade w/ Baltimore Orioles); RP David Aardsma (via trae w/ Chicago White Sox); SP Carlos Vasquez (via trade w/ Chicago White Sox)

Starting Pitching: There are many questions to be answered with regards to their starting rotation. Ace Carlos Zambrano had a fine year last season going 16-7 in 33 starts with a decent 3.41 ERA. He has questions with command and that can lead to rough starts. It will be important that he remains healthy all season long. Free agent acquisition Ted Lily's questions are to do with his consistency. He goes through stretches where he can be very effective and stretches where he can be absolutely horrendous. He also had a run-in with then-manager Jay Gibbons when he didn't agree with getting pulled from a start. With Lou as his boss, he can't have any temper tantrums. He was 15-13 with a 4.13 ERA in 33 starts last season. Third starter Jason Marquis had a terrible final three starts lasting one lousy inning in the final regular season start and just 2.2 innings in his third-to-last start. Although he was only 2 games under .500 (14-16), Marquis allowed a brutal 6.41 runs per outing. It's unreasonable to expect, even the most powerful offensive team, to bail you out after allowing a lot of runs early and often. He needs to get into the 7th more frequently this coming season, something he accomplished just 11 times last season in 33 starts. Rich Hill is entering is third season in the majors and he's hoping to make it his first full season. He was 6-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 17 starts last season. He needs to be better in the middle innings and this southpaw can struggle with his command. For potential 4th or 5th starter Mark Prior, the key will be whether he has fully recovered from his shoulder injury. He played only nine games last season before going down with a season-ending shoulder injury. If he's not ready or able to perform effectively, trade ascquisition Wade Miller could find himself with a spot in the rotation. Miller will need to be on early in the season, something which he struggles with, otherwise he'll find himself in AAA Iowa. He also needs to keep his concentration with runners aboard on the batter. Miller was 0-2 as a September call-up in five starts with a decent 4.16 ERA. Sophomore Sean Marshall will be looking to build on his rookie campaign after going 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA in 24 starts. He missed 37 games to a rib injury. Marshall needs to establish a good first-strike pitch and to deepen his arsenal. Finally, Angel Guzman will get some consideration but look for him to start the season in Iowa.

Bullpen: Canadian Ryan Dempster is the closer and anchor to this deep bullpen. He had an ok campaign last season. However, on top of saving 24 games, he also blew at least ten save opportunities which is high for a pitcher your counting on to close out a one-run or two-run ball game. He'll be looking to bounce back from last season and to prove to Pinella that he can be counted on to slam the door shut when the ball is handed to him. Setting him up in the eighth will be former ace Kerry Woo, who is also coming off a shoulder injury, which limited him to just 4 starts last season. Look for him to start by pitching one inning max, and if all goes well, he may eventually work his way to either long-relief duty or maybe even a spot in the rotation. Lefty trade acquisuition Neal Cotts will also be a setup man to Dempster, as well as serving as a left-handed specialist. Cotts was 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA in 70 appearances in '06. A third reliever who is capable of setting up is rightie Bob Howry, who's bread and butter and pretty much only effective pitch is his fastball. Look for him to come in to the game in the 7th. He was 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in 80 appearances last season. Lefty Scott Eyre is the primary lefty specialist on this squad. Because of his stamina questions, he'll pitch an inning max, but more than likely just a batter or two an outing. Roberto Novoa should be a middle reliever for the Cubs and come into the game around the 6th inning. He was 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA last season. Willie Ohman is a third lefty out of this deep bullpen who should get some work against LH batters. He was 1-1 was a 4.13 ERA in 78 appearances last season. Micheal Wuertz will get a shot to show what he can do, but he'll have to turn smoe heads at camp otherwise, he'll start the year in Iowa. He was 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 41 appearances in the '06 season. Entering just his second MLB campaign Wes Walrohnd will all but certainly start in Iowa and be either an injury call-up or a September call-up. He was 0-1 in 10 appearances, two of those being starts and he had a bad 6.23 ERA. Sophomore Carlos Marmol heads into training camp feeling pretty good about his rookie campaign going 5-7 with a brutal 6.08 ERA in thirteen starts and a further 9 appearances out of the bullpen, not bad considering it was his first taste in the majors. He'll start in Iowa. Finally, rookie Jae Kuk Rae will get a look in training camp but he'll also start in Iowa. He was 0-1 with a brutal 8.40 ERA over ten appearances as a September call-up.

Catcher: Micheal Barrett was slowed by the injury bug last season and as a result only played 107 games. He's a solid catcher and can hit the ball. Look for him to play between 120-125 games this season while batting 6th. His back-up will be a battle between veteran Henry Blanco and rookie Geovany Soto. Blanco should have the edge due to more experience and the fact that he's good defensively. Soto has just a dozen games of experience under his belt and can benefit from at least a partial season of AAA ball. Also in the mix is rookie Jose Ramirez, who will certainly be in Iowa at the start of the season, but may get in a game or two in Spring Training in a split squad game.

1st Baseman: Derrick Lee is the heart and sole of this ball club. He'll hit clean-up, and if healthy, should be in the running for MVP. Unfortunately, he missed significant time last season to a broken wrist and also the final eleven games of the season to a family emergency. Assuming Lee is healthy, he'll easily play 150+ games this coming season. Backing him up is the aging Cliff Floyd. The big question mark for Floyd will be the health of his leg. He missed 22 games with a torn achilles tendon, and as a result he played just 97 games last season. Floyd still has plenty of power and will drive in plenty of runs. Also in the mix will be Daryle Ward who will see a reduced role in the Cubs organization, likely being called upon to pinch hit primarily.

2nd Baseman: Free agent signing Mark DeRosa will start the bulk of the games at second base. He has improved significantly over the years, going from a utility infielderto a legitimate starter. He's strong in the field and good at the bat, except in the clutch. Look for him to bat second in the line-up. DeRosa should play between 120 and 130 games in '07. Backing him up will be utility infielder Ryan Theriot, who is entering what should be his first full season in the bigs. He'ss good in the field and is a good contact hitter, but he doesn't have a lot of power and the general tools to play every day.

Shortstop: Cesar Iztruis struggled through an injury-plagued season in which he was healthy enough to play in just 59 games. He'll be looking to prove to management that he is healthy enough to play this season. If healthy, he'll play between 110-120 games and bat 8th. Backing him up will be sophomore Ronny Cedeno, who is entering his second full season in the majirs and is out to prove his rookie campaign was no fluke. Also, Theriot can play SS, should Iztruis not be healthy enough to play.

3rd Baseman: All-star Aramis Ramirez has controlled 3B for the Cubs the last three seasons and inked a five year extension in the off-season. He'll play 155+ games if healthy and bat 3rd in the batting order. Fielding could be an adventure for Ramirez. Backing him up will be rookie Scott Moore, who could wind up in Iowa to start the season for more game action.

Left Fielder: Matt Murton has earned an everyday spot in the line-up and will bat 7th. Murton doesn't have a strong fielding arm but makes up for it by being a pretty decent hitter. Look for him to play between 135-140 games this coming season. Backing him up could be Floyd, but he'll likely primarily either pinch hit or play 1st base to save his legs. Instead look for Angel Pagan to get the bulk of whatever games Murton sits out. Strikes out way too much and struggles as a right-handed batter, but Pagan is solid in the field and very fast on the base path.

Center Fielder: This is going to be interesting, after his first year as an outfielder Alfonso Soriano moves over to Center Field where he'll have to cover significantly more ground to snag fly balls. Luckily he's known for his speed and thrives in those kinds of situations. He'll bat lead-off and be expected to get on base early and often. Soriano will play 155+ if healthy. Backing him up will be Felix Pie who will get a chance in spring training to make the squad but will need to turn some heads and camp and is all but certain to start the year in Iowa.

Right Fielder: Playing right field and batting fifth for the Chicago Cubs is Jacque Jones. The former-Twins All-star. He's great in the outfield but far too impatient at the plate, often flailing at pitches way out of the strike zone. Nonetheless he'll be expected to contribute by driving in a good portion of the runs. He'll play around 150 games next season. Backing him up will be be rookie Buck Coats who is likely to start the season in Iowa.

Season Prediction: The Cubs success will come down to the health and effectiveness of their starting pitching. If the Cubs offense provides decent run support and their starters pitch deep in ball games and the bullpen shuts the door, the Cubs will contend for first place. However, if a few pitchers get hurt or throw too many stinkers, than they'll finish as low as fourth in the NL Central. Howeve, I'll stick my neck out and pick them to finish second in the NL Central, simply because the Reds, Astros, Brewers and Pirates are weaker teams on paper.