MLB Season Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds

Last Season's Standings: In the 2006 season the Cincinnati Reds went 80-82 to finish third in the NL Central, including 6-4 in their final ten games.

In: 2B Mark Bellhorn (prev. team: San Diego Padres); CF Bubba Crosby (prev. team: NY Yankees); SP Eric Milton; C Chad Moeller (prev. team: Milwaukee Brewers); RP Mike Stanton (prev. team: San Fracisco Giants); RP David Weathers; SP Paul Wilson; LF Dewayne Wise; SS Alex Gonzalez (prev. team: Boston Red Sox); SP Kirk Saarloss (via trade with Oakland A's); 1B Jeff Conine (via trade w/ Philadelphia Phillies)

Out: 3B Rich Aurilia (new team: SF Giants); SP Brandon Claussen (new team: Washington Nationals); SS Royce Clayton (new team: Toronto Blue Jays); SP Ryan Franklin (new team: St. Louis Cardinals); SP Sun-Woo Kim (new team: SF Giants); RP Scott Schoeneweis (new team: NY Mets); RP Jason Standridge (new team: NY Mets); RP David Shafer (via trade w/ Oakland A's); LF Jovan Moran (voia trade w/ Philadelphia Phillies); 3B Brad Key (via trade w/Philadelphia Phillies)

Starting Pitching: Staff ace Aaron Harang is coming off a career year and will need to equal or better his 16-11 record and ERA of 3.78 if the Reds are to be successful this coming season. Getting ahead in the count is key fopr Harang's success, which he tends to struggle with. Next in the rotation is Bronson Arroyo, who benefited from a change in scenery after being traded from boston before last season. He went 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA. It's important that he pitch into the seventh to save a youthful bullpen. Southpaw Eric Milton suffered through an injury-riddled season in which he finished .500 (8-8) with a brutal 5.19 ERA. He'll be looking to prove to management and the training staff that he's healthy and can be effective on the mound. Likely getting the fourth spot in the rotation is Kyle Lohse, although he has yet to have a season where his record has been .500 or better since 2003 when he was still with the Twins. He was 5-10 last season with an awful 5.83 ERA in 34 appearances, 19 of those being starts. He'll need to prove that he can work better against left-handed batters and that he can pitch beyond the fifth inning, otherwise he could be in the 'pen. Also battling for a spot in the rotation will be youngster Matt Belisle, who has battled through two injury-riddled seasons, playing in just 30 games last season, two of those as a starter. He needs to prove he's healthy. Rookie lefty Bobby Livingston will also be looked at as a possible fifth starter, but look for him to start the season in Louisville to gain more experience. Elizardo Ramirez missed the entire season last year to shoulder surgery and will be looking to prove to management that he's healthy again. Finally, long-arm Kirk Saarloss will get the opportunity to be the Reds fifth starter and he may have a good shot based on experience alone. He was 7-7 with with a 4.75 ERA in 35 games played including 16 starts.

Bullpen: There is no real anchor to this bullpen, at least heading into training camp, it will be closer by committee until someone emerges as capable of closing out a tight game. Weathers saved 12 games and went 4-4 last season in 67 appearances. The only real flaw against him is that runners have all day to steal against him. Weathers missed four games to a shoulder injury. Todd Coffey is likely to come into the ball game in the 8th to set-up the closer. He was 6-7 with a 3.58 ERA in 81 games played. He struggles against lefties. That means, Bill Bray may face the left-handed bats late in the ball game,seeing as he is a lefty himself. He was 3-2 with a 4.09 ERA in 48 games in '06. Another man in the mix for a set-up job, likely to come into the ball game in the 7th is Gary Majewski, who was 4-4 with a 4.61 ERA in 65 appearances last season. He needs to be better pitching with nobody on, which is surprising. Lefty Rheal Cormier is heading into the season knowing he's likely to be the Reds midle reliever. Look for him to come into the ball game in the 6th or 7th. Cormier was 2-3 with a 2.44 ERA in 64 appearances in the '06 season. Brian Shackleford will likely start the season in the bigs, but if he has a bad camp, he could wind up in Louisville, he was 1-0 with a brutal 7.16 ERA in 26 games played in '06. Lefty Mike Stanton was brought in to challenge for a bullpen spot and will likely be a third lefty reliever with the primary role as a lefty specialist. However, he is aging and there's no telling how effective he will be this season. Rookie Brad Sampson is entering his ninth major league camp and will start in Louisville but will be a call-up either as an injury replacement or as a September call-up. Finally, rookie Jared Burton will start in Midland, but he will get a look during training camp.

Catcher: David Ross will get the bulk of the games behind the plate. He has a strong throwing arm and can drive the ball; strikes out too much and is far too agressive at the bat. He will bat eighth, which is the customary batting spot for most catchers. Look for Ross to play around 100 games this season. Backing him up will be Joe Valentin, who is entering his fourth season in the Reds organization. He hit .269 including 8 HR in 186 AB's. He'll likely play at least once per week, and sometimes a bit more. Also in the mix for the back-up job is Chad Moeller, who is attempting to make the reds squad after three seasons in the Brewers organization; needs to hit the ball off the ground more. Look for Moeller to fight a tough battle, but lose out to Valentin and start the year in Midland.

First Baseman: Scott Hatteberg will once again be a key component of the Reds offense. A key free agent signing in the '05/06 offseason, Hatteberg hit .289 including 13 HR and 51 RBI'S. He'll need to equal or better that total. He should see hittable pitches hitting behind Griffey Jr. in the #3 hole. Look for him to play between 135 and 145 games if healthy. Backing him up is trade acquisition Jeff Conine, who provides the Reds with a solid pinch hitter, however he needs to be more consistent at driving in runners late in the game as that will be his primary role.

Second Baseman: Brandon Philips is a baseball player who is blessed with natural abilities, he just needs to improve his defense and consistency throughout the season. Look for Philips to hit seventh in the Reds line-up and to play around 150 games if healthy. His primary back-up should be utility man Juan Castro, who should start around 50 games and pinch hit in several other games. He'll be fine as a defensive replacement, but don't look him to start against many southpaws, because he's brutal against the left-handed pitcher. Ryan Freel can also play second base, although he'll likely play primarily in the outfield, more on him later. Finally, rookie Jeff Keppinger will also get a look at, but he'll likely start in AAA Midland for further fine-tuning.

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez is likely to bat 2nd in the line-up and play between 100-115 games in the '07 season. He'll be looking to prove to management that the back problems that plagued him are behind him. He hit .255 with 9 HR and 50 runs batted in. Backng him up will be Castro and rookie Jerry Gil, who has just 29 major league games under his belt and wil likely start the season in Midland.

Third Baseman: Entering what should be his first full season in the majors, Edwin Encarnacion is looking to prove that he's healthy and ready to play as an everyday play for the first time, he missed the final month of the season with an ankle injury. Encarnacion hit .276 with 15 HR and 72 RBI last season in 117 gamees played. Look for him to hit 6th and play 115-125 games if healthy. Casto will serve as the primary back-up. Freel and Keppinger can also play the hot corner.

Left Fielder: Adam Dunn combines with Hatteberg and Griffey Jr. to form a solid middle of the line-up. Dunn will hit 5th in the batting order. He has a lot of power and hit 40 HR last season. His strikeout total is a major concern, at an ungodly 194 total at the end of last season. In the field, he has a weak arm, odd considering he's a former QB. Don't be surprised if he plays all 162 games, although manager Jerry Narron will likely make this workhorse sit a game or two to save him. Backing him up will be a combo of Conine, Freel and free agent signing Bubba Crosby. Crosby is looking forward to more game action after being stuck in the loaded Yankee outfield for much of his career. The number of games he plays will likely be determined by the health of Griffey Jr. Rookie Norris Hopper is also in the mix, but due to lack of MLB experience (just 21 games) he'll all but certainly start in AAA ball. Unfortunately, at this point rookie Josh Hamilton lost a few years of development due to drug problems (steroids) and thus he'll need to show management he can play the game without relying on cheating otherwise his major league career could be over before its begun.

Center Fielder: Training Camp has yet to begin and already injury-prone clean-up hitter and former-Mariners star Ken Griffey Jr. is nursing an injury (broken wrist). Since joinin the Reds in 2000, he has had just once season where he's been pretty healthy (2000 when he played 145 games). Because of the injuries, his numbers are incoonsistent, but when healthy, he can kill the ball and shine defensively. Look for the Reds to be extra cautious with Griffey Jr. and his health. Crosby will likely play at least 50-75 games as the back-up in center field. Ryan Freel can also play center field, but he'll likely play mostly in right field.

Right Fielder: Ryan Freel is entering his second full season in the majors and is looking to build on his success in his first full one. He has a fair amount of speed and will need to use it as the lead-off batter in this line-up. He stole 37 bases, hit .271, blasted 8 homers and knocked in 27 runs last season. Look for him to play between 125 and 135 games in '07. Conine and Crosby will be his primary back-ups. Chris Denorfia will be battling for the last outfield spot and a place on the Reds bench. He hit .283 in 106 at-bats last season. Hopper and Hamilton will also be looked at, but both will likely start in Midland.

Season Prediction: I think the Reds should be in contetion for a while, but unfortunately, their line-up seems too inconsistent and their bullpen is a question mark. The Reds will finish '07 in 4th place in the NL Central.