Monday, October 09, 2006

MLB AL Championship Series Preview


Detroit Tigers Vs.







Oakland A's






Starting Pitching:

Ace southpaw Nate Robertson was on a roll in September going 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA. In his last 18 starts he has pitched into the 6th inning or more. Consistency is the question mark for Robertson. Case-in-point is his only Division Series appearance where his line was 5.2 IP 12 H 7 R (all of which were earned) 1 K. He's more successful when his devastating slider is working. Behind him is power Pitcher Justin Verlander. In his start against the Yankees his fastball was clocked at 100MPH and in the regular season it was clocked as high as 99MPH. Verlander was solid in that start going 5.1 IP with 7 H 3 R (all earned) while walking 4 and striking out 5. He will have to get the number of walks down, but other than that he looks good heading into his start. Verlander has a great curve and a decent change to compliment his roaring fastball. When all three pitches are doing their thing, he's practically unhittable, must keep ball down. Aah the controversial Kenny Rogers, he pitched the game of his life in Game 3 and promptly doused one of Detroit's finest with Champagne after the Tigers clinched the series. Rogers is still one of the best fielders at his position in the game. Although his velocity has been on the decline in recent years, he knows how to pitch the corners of the plate and should be an asset to this Tiger's team, provided he keeps his temper in check. His curve and change are great compliments to his fastball and he's got a fine pick-off move. Rounding out the rotation is Jeremy Bonderman who pitched pheomenol 3-hit ball into the 9th in the series clinching win against the Yankees including being perfect through 5. He has major league stuff, but at times his command is an issue. He relies on a mid-to-high 90's 4-seamer, a hard breaking slider and a splitter to get batters out.

Barry Zito said he was going to use his Game 1 start in the division series to pitch a mechanical "blip" and it appears that blip has disappeared, at least for one start. Zito was solid in leading the split against the speedy Twins. Zito was very economical in his division series start, going 8 innings, allowing just 4 hits, which resulting in a single earned run, walking 4 and striking out 1 batter. He'll need to repeat that masterful performance against the tough Tiger's line-up. The A's shocked the baseball world when they inked Esteban Loaiza to a three-year deal worth $7 million per season over the winter. He has rewarded the A's faith in him with a solid regular season and a solid Game 2 start in the division series. Unfortunately, his team was unable to rally until after he had exited Game 2 so he didn't pick up the win. Loazia has never won a start in the postseason, his best showing being for the Yankees in '04 going 0-1 with a 1.12 ERA. Game 3 starter should be either Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, with the other being moved to the bull pen. Haren won his ALDS start going 6 innings while giving up 9 hits, 2 earned runs, walking one and striking out 2. Joe Blanton did not pitch in the ALDS. Rich Harden didn't get a chance to pitch in the ALDS as the A's swept the Twins, thus making his game 4 scheduled start unnecessary. He will get into a game this series, as the A's will need 4 wins to take the ALCS and this series can go a maximum of seven games.

Edge: Tigers

Relief Pitching:

Closer Todd Jones is not as dominatingt as other closers in the game such as Rivera and Nathan just to name a couple in the same league as Jones, but he'll get the job done. Setting him up are righties Joel Zumaya (who devastated Yankee Slugger Jason Giambi with a 102 MPH heater.) Also capable late inning relievers are from the right side are Fernando Rodney and Jason Grilli. Rodney should get his first taste of the post-season this series. He was solid in the regular season collecting 7 wins, a 3.52 ERA, 65 K's and 34 BB's. Grilli retired the lone batter he faced in the ALDS. He should be fresh for the ALCS. From the left side is Jamie Walker, who retired the final two batters of the ALDS. He's tough on lefties amd will be facing a stiff challenge from the likes of Chavez and Kotsay.

Young closer Hudson Street has more than proven he can hold his own in the pressure-cooker of a ninth inning. He saved the first two games for the Athletics and snuffed out any chance of a Twins comeback. Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero and Chad Gaudin are all solid pitchers to have in the late innings. Duscherer allowed a one HR to New Westminster's Justin Morneau late in the deciding game 3 of the ALDS while striking out 4 in 4 innings of work. Calero pitched a scoreless 6th to pick up the victory in Game 2. He allowed one walk and struck out 1. Heshould be fresh heading into the ALCS. Gaudin was left off the ALDS rister and collected 4 wins with a 3.09 ERA while whiffing 36 and walking 42 in the '06 season. He'll be relied on n the 7th. Rounding out the 'pen are long relievers Kirk Saarloos and Joe Kennedy. Kennedy recorded the final 2 outs of the ALDS and will be relied on to face the left-handed batters of the Tigers. Saarloos will be counted on in the event a pitcher gets hurt or struggles early. He won and lost seven games with a 4.75 ERA, 52 K's and 53 BB's.

Edge: even

Catcher:

Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez is a veteran leader in the locker room and knows when to be tough on the pitchers and when to calm them down. He's also a great defensive catcher and can quickly end a rally. Pudge is good at throwing out runners. At the Plate he is a hitter who can use the whole field. Although he doesn't have the power he used to possess, Rodriguez makes up for it by being a solid contact hitter and a good runner

Don't expect Jason Kendall to come out and win the game with a three run homer with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. That's not his game, Kendall is better known to be a contact hitter and being patient at the plate. However his average and on-base % have each gone up 50 point since the Mid-Summer Classic. In the field at age 32, he is more than adequate defensively.

Edge: Tigers

First Baseman:

Sean Casey has been in a bad slump since September and shortly after joining the Tigers. When he's on, Casey's a great line drive hitter and very difficult to strike out. So far this post-season, Casey's hitting .353 with 6 hits and 4 RBI's. He's showing signs of breaking out of his slump.

Dan Johnson has been the primary first baseman in the post-season. He can hit for power and is great defensively. Nick Swisher also has experience at 1st base, but he's primarily an outfielder. Swisher will likely take the bulk of the games at 1st base due to his playoff experience.

Edge: A's

Second Baseman:

Placido Polanco is one of the more effective No. 2 hitters in the game, and he makes those around him better as the Tigers found out when he separated his shoulder in August making a diving catch (they were just 13-21 without him in the line-up.) Just average defensively, Polanco is a heady, patient hitter who rarely goes down swinging or looking. Polanco is a great small ball player, but he can kock the occasional ball out of the park now and then. He also hit a team-high .516 (16-for-31) against the A's this season. Look for him to make a major contribution to this team in this series.

The A's lost Mark Ellis to a broken finger in the ALDS, which means D'Angelo Jiminez, who started game 3 in place of Ellis in the ALDS, is the likely starter in the ALCS. Jiminez is at best adequate at the plate, but if he can play solid defense, the A's should be able to substitute his lack of offense in other parts of the line-up. The best thing for the A's would be if Bobby Crosby can play shortstop, which would enable them to use ALDS hero Marco Scutaro at 2B.

Edge: Tigers

Shortstop:

Carlos Guillen is a smooth fielder, a .300 hitter with some power and one of the reasons the Tigers are where they are today. Guillen leads the Tigers in on-base percentage. He's missed time because of injuries, but Guillen remains one of the better all-round middle infielders in the game. He also wore out Oakland pitching this season, hitting .375 with 5 extra-base hits and a team-high 20 total bases and 8 RBI's in nine games.

Marco Scutaro has been doing an adequate job of filling in for the injured Bobby Crosby. Scutaro is a streaky hitter with limited power, and his bread-and-butter is his defesive play. Scutaro is not the offensive and defensive weapon Crosby is, but he catches what he gets to. He had a sensational ALDS, especially with the glove.

Edge: even

Third Baseman:

Brandon Inge is the best athlete on the Tigers, and the converted catcher/outfielder has gradually improved his play at his latest position. Inge has power and runs very well. A clutch hitter, Inge has come up with the big hit more than once this season and hit well (.310) against Oakland.

Eric Chavez is having a disappointing year by his usual lofty standards, and his batting average is significantly below his career level, but he has come up with big hits in the clutch and has provided power and RBIs the club needs from the position. Defensively, Chavez remains among the best in the league.

Edge: A's

Left Fielder:

Craig Monroe is among the league leaders in strikeouts, but he also provides power and drives in an acceptable number of runs for a corner outfielder. Monroe is a dead-pull hitter who has trouble against top right-handed pitching or when he tries to pull pitches off the plate. He doesn't walk very much. Defensively, Monroe is average.

Jay Payton is enjoying one of the best years of his career. A contact hitter with excellent speed, he is more patient at the plate than he was a few years ago. Payton is an excellent center fielder, but Mark Kotsay's presence makes Payton one of the better defensive left fielders in the league.

Edge: A's

Center Fielder:

Curtis Granderson is an emerging talent with the speed necessary to play centyer field, yet he displays surprising power for a line drive hitter. Granderson has a good, accurate arm and plays excellent defense. The 25-year-old needs better plate discipline and could improve on his basestealing skills. He's had success against Oakland, hitting .359 in 39 at-bats.

Mark Kotsay is one of the best center fielders in the game. He covers a lot of ground, has a strong arm and takes excellent routes to the ball. Offensively, he's a first-rate lead-off man who doesn't strike out much and hits the ball on a line to all fields. He wears out right-handers and has been among the hottest hitters on the A's since the All-Star break. Expect Kotsay to start a lot of rallies.

Edge: A's

Right Fielder:

Detroit clean-up hitter Magglio Ordonez is usually among the league leaders in hitting with runners in scoring position, and once again he's topped the century mark in RBIs. Ordonez drives the ball to all fields eith a short, powerful swing and seldom gets cheated. He is a decent fielder with an accurate arm.

Milton Bradley is a versatile talent who does many things well, but he has trouble playing well on a consistent basis. He has some power, but doesn't hit a lot of homers, has some speed but doesn't steal a lot of bases. A line drive hitter who uses all fields, Bradley adds to his vaue with his good strike-zone judgement. He is also an above-average fielder who can play all three outfield positions.

Edge: Tigers

Designated Hitter:

The release of Dmitri Young left power-hittting Marcus Thames as the DH. Thames was 1-22 against Oakland pitching this season; 'nuff said.

Frank "the big hurt" Thomas not only had one of the best comeback seasons this year, but he is also deserving of Most Valuable Player considerations. The Bug Hurt came back big in 2006 and is once again the power-hitting force he was before a spate of injuries curtailed his production in recent years. Thomas, who hit .500 in the ALDS, crushes inside pitches and also does a good job driving pitches off the plate

Edge: A's

Bench:

Omar Infante is a handy guy to have around as the good-glove infielder can fill in at a number of spots and is a decent pinch-runner. Vance Wilson is a capable back-up to Pudge Rodriguez, and Neifi Perez gives Leyland anther glove off the bench. Overall defensively, however Detroit's supporting cast is, at best, average.

Not only can starters Bradley and Payton play all three outfield positions, so too can Hiram Bocachica. Bobby Kielty, an above-average pinch hitter, can handle either conrner outfield spot and has also filled in on the infield. Swisher can play first base or either corner outfield spot. Jiminez and Antonio Perez, when healthy, can play three infield positions. The A's also have five switch hitters, which gives Manager Ken Macha all kinds of matchup possibilities.

Edge: A's

Manager:

Detroit's Jim Leyland has done a masterful job getting a young Tiger's team to the playoffs after years of futility. Leyland has been stern when necessary but generally laid-back in a style that has meshed perfectly in Detroit.

Oakland's Ken Macha has proven to be one of the most capable managers in the game. It seems like every year the A's lose frontline free agents yet still find a way to plg the holes and win more often than they lose. Macha and his staff deserve a lot of credit for that.

Edge: Tigers

Intangibles:

The Tigers are coming off one of the biggest playoff upsets in recent years, but can they sustain that magic for another round?

The A's never trailed in a sweep of Minnesota and are excelling in all phases of the game. This is a loose team playing with a lot of confidence right now, and, unlike the ALDS, the A's will have the home-field advantage against Detroit.

Edge: A's

Series Prediction: A's in 7

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